CONTENTS

A.E. Abramov, M.I. Chernova, M.S. Zaretskaya
Mind the Gap: An Empirical Analysis of Mutual Fund Returns, Behavioral Factors, and Investment Strategies, p. 8-26
Abstract
In a highly volatile financial market, investors in mutual funds frequently encounter a discrepancy — a gap — between their actual personal investment returns and the fund’s time-weighted performance. This study aims to quantify the magnitude of this gap and identify its primary drivers within the Russian market. The research is based on a sample of 506 open-ended equity and bond funds covering January 2005 to August 2025 and 83 exchange-traded equity and bond funds covering January 2021 to August 2025. The findings indicate that in open-ended equity funds, investors underperformed the funds by an average of 0.87 percentage points (p.p.) per annum, while in open-ended bond funds, the gap amounted to 0.29 p.p. Market timing was identified as the predominant explanatory factor for this gap in open-ended funds, with its scale significantly influenced by market volatility, fund size, and the RUONIA rate. While timing effects were central, the influence of past returns also exerted a negative impact on investor outcomes. Conversely, in exchange-traded funds, investor returns averaged higher than fund returns (yielding negative gaps of −0.31 p.p. for bonds and −1.39 p.p. for equities), a phenomenon potentially attributed to market-maker activities. A comparative analysis of capital allocation strategies over time demonstrates that money-cost averaging and value averaging are the most profitable and resilient strategies, consistently outperforming observed irregular investment patterns. The study concludes that irrational behavior and speculative market-timing attempts lead to systematic return losses. When underlying assets are highly volatile, long-term investors are advised to employ regular contribution strategies to mitigate behavioral risks. Information about the return gap can be used to promote more rational investment behavior.
Keywords: internal rate of return, fund return, investment strategy, mutual funds, market timing, value averaging
JEL: G11, G23, G41, D14
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I. et al. (2026). Mind the Gap: An Empirical Analysis of Mutual Fund Returns, Behavioral Factors, and Investment Strategies. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 8–26 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-8-26.
© Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Zaretskaya M.S., 2026

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M.S. Makushkin
Russian Corporate Bond Market After 2022: New Challenges and Financial Innovations, p. 27-44
Abstract
This article examines financial innovations in the Russian corporate bond market as a response to structural changes in the economy following 2022. The tightening of monetary policy has led to prohibitively high interest rates for domestic companies, while the sanctions have closed access to external capital markets. Despite these constraints, Russian firms have successfully adapted to the new environment and even increased the volume of primary bond issuances. The study shows that financial innovations played a significant role in this adaptation process. Using a large dataset on corporate bond issuances after 2022, we identify the changes in the patterns of bond issuance. Three main types of financial innovations are highlighted: floating-rate bonds, new locally denominated currency bonds, and exotic instruments such as discount notes and convertible bonds. Our findings indicate that financial innovations after 2022 contributed to preserving and expanding corporate bond issuance while supporting the recovery of liquidity in the Russian bond market. In some cases, the new instruments reduced borrowing costs and partially substituted for market segments that became unavailable after 2022. At the same time, the recovery of the bond market cannot be attributed solely to financial innovations, but also reflects broader economic stabilization, market adaptation to the new institutional environment, and the development of domestic market infrastructure.
Keywords: corporate bonds, interest rates, floating rate bonds, foreign currency bonds, replacement bonds
JEL: G12, G13, E43
Acknowledgments: The article was prepared within the framework of the Basic Research program at HSE University (HSE-BR-2025-044).
For citation: Makushkin M.S. (2026). Russian corporate bond market after 2022: new challenges and financial innovations. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 27–44 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-27-44.
© Makushkin M.S., 2026

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N.I. Lysenok, Yu.E. Markova
Application of Clustering Methods for Forming an Optimal Investment Portfolio, p. 45-63
Abstract
The article discusses the application of clustering methods to form an optimal investment portfolio that allows the investor to achieve an effective risk-reward ratio. Three popular clustering methods, K-Means, MeanShift, and DBSCAN, are examined. The article focuses on the DBSCAN clustering method and highlights its advantages over other clustering methods in the context of financial data analysis. DBSCAN is particularly useful for identifying clusters of arbitrary shapes, being resistant to noise and eliminating the need to pre-define the number of clusters. The article presents a comprehensive approach to forming an optimal portfolio. The first step involves preparing the data and clustering it based on historical data on returns, volatility, and correlations using a programming language. The second stage involves further ranking by assigning integral scores that take into account a variety of criteria and allow for the identification of the stocks most attractive for investment within each selected cluster. After completing these stages, an optimal portfolio is formed with the highest Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and other metrics that outperform the weighted average portfolio and the MOEX index. To validate the results, Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the portfolio’s resilience in various market scenarios, including periods of volatility and crises. The study fills a gap in the study of the application of clustering methods for optimizing an investment portfolio, proposing a practical algorithm that can be adapted for individual and institutional investors. The findings highlight the potential of applying clustering methods to form an optimal investment portfolio.
Keywords: clustering methods, optimal investment portfolio, The Monte Carlo method, Sharpe ratio, stock market
JEL: G11, C38, C61
Note: The article uses materials from the final qualifying work of Markova Yu.E.
For citation: Lysenok N.I., Markova Yu.E. (2026). Application of Clustering Methods for Forming an Optimal Investment Portfolio. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 45–63 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-45-63.
© Lysenok N.I., Markova Yu.E., 2026

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E.B. Tyutyukina, O.S. Osipova, D.A. Egorova, E.Yu. Silpagar
Financial and Institutional Aspects of the Development of Impact Investing in Russia, p. 64-80
Abstract
Impact investing is increasingly regarded worldwide as a contemporary instrument for delivering key national socio-economic and environmental priorities. In Russia, impact investments are also being made despite the absence of a clearly defined legal and regulatory status for this type of activity. The purpose of this study is to develop proposals for establishing the financial and institutional conditions required for the development of the impact investing market in Russia, based on an assessment of retail investors’ readiness to engage in impact investing and an analysis of ongoing impact projects as potential investment targets. Continuing the discussion in the academic literature on terminological clarity and the scope of concepts describing various forms of socially responsible investment, the article proposes criteria that capture the essence of impact investing. Drawing on an original questionnaire survey of retail investors conducted via the Google Forms platform, the authors identify and statistically confirm their readiness to participate in impact investing and describe respondents’ behavioural patterns with respect to impact investing and the use of financial instruments. A comparative analysis of Russian and international practices in the implementation and financing of impact projects (252 and 201 projects, respectively) demonstrates the readiness of economic agents to pursue such projects in the Russian economy and makes it possible to identify priority directions for scaling them up. The study develops proposals for the development of the impact investing market, grouped into two areas: institutional and financial. The institutional block includes formal recognition of the status of impact investing; the creation of a registry of impact projects using platform‑based solutions; the establishment of state infrastructure to support impact projects; and the formation of an information and communication environment to promote impact investing. The financial block comprises the creation of specialised financial institutions and the introduction of public financial support measures for organisations implementing impact projects, institutional investors raising capital to finance impact projects, and private, including retail, impact investors.
Keywords: impact investing, retail impact investors, financing instruments and institutions, government financial support measures, institutional conditions
JEL: О16
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research funded by the state assignment to the Financial University for 2025.
For citation: Tyutyukina E.B., Osipova O.S. et al. (2026). Financial and Institutional Aspects of the Development of Impact Investing in Russia. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 64–80 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-64-80.
© Tyutyukina E.B., Osipova O.S., Egorova D.A., Silpagar E.Yu., 2026

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E.A. Isaev, E.A. Fedchenko, L.V. Gusarova, Yu.S. Rylov, D.V. Rudneva, D.R. Mutagirova
Managing Available Balances of the Single Treasury Account: The Need for Universal Service, p. 81-99
Abstract
Introduction. In the context of budget constraints and a highly volatile economic environment, managing balances in the Single Treasury Account (STA) is becoming not just a source of additional revenue but also a critical factor in the state’s financial stability. The existing state cash management system, having proven its effectiveness, faces institutional and technological barriers that hinder its further development. The main goal of this article is to explore the architecture of the “universal service” concept as an evolutionary development of the Single Treasury Window model, aimed at overcoming these barriers. Materials and Methods. The study is based on a systems approach. Critical and comparative analysis, a generalization of liquidity management practices, and elements of economic and mathematical modeling were used to substantiate the proposed solutions. The theoretical basis was an adapted Baumol-Tobin model, supplemented by principles of the Federal Treasury, the Russian Ministry of Finance, and an analysis of regional practices. Results. The architecture of the universal service concept proposed in the study was a logical con­tinuation of the authors’ earlier publications, which proposed a Single Treasury Window model aimed at solving key problems that limit the effectiveness of state cash management. The architecture of the universal service includes four main modules: a single data portal, a forecast module for CEN balances based on AI, a placement optimization module and a digital risk audit module. Unlike existing models — such as the Miller-Orr model used to optimize cash balances or traditional treasury budget execution models — the proposed service involves adaptive customization for users with different levels of digital maturity. Conclusions. The proposed universal service architecture makes it possible to move from reactive liquidity management to proactive, based on predictive analytics and automated risk management. The implementation of the service will help reduce cash gaps, increase the transparency of management and generate additional income from the placement of temporarily free funds due to more accurate forecasting of CEN and the effective use of available financial instruments. Further research will be aimed at developing algorithms for the forecast module and assessing the economic effect of the service implementation.
Keywords: temporarily available budget funds, cash management, liquidity management in the public sector, universal service, single treasury window, single treasury account, forecasting
JEL: G17, H11, H12, H63
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under a state assignment from the Financial University.
For citation: Isaev E.A., Fedchenko E.A. et al. (2026). Managing Available Balances of the Single Treasury Account: The Need for Universal Service. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 81–99 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-81-99.
© Isaev E.A., Fedchenko E.A., Gusarova L.V., Rylov S.Yu., Rudneva D.V., Mutagirova D.R., 2026

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N.N. Sisigina
Dynamics of Interterritorial Settlements in Mandatory Health Insurance System: Results of 2021–2022 Reforms, p. 100-119
Abstract
In the second half of 2010s territorial mandatory health insurance (MHI) funds faced the rapid growth of spending on medical care provided outside the insurance territory. In 2021–2022 federal regulators introduced a series of amendments to interregional settlements (IRS) mechanism to prevent shortfall in territorial MHI programs. The study aims to assess the impact of 2021–2022 reforms on financial burden related to IRS. Using data from acts on territorial MHI funds’ budget implementation author evaluates regional expenditures and revenues in 2019–2024. To analyze the causes of the changes in spending territorial MHI funds experts’ publications were taken. The findings show significant reduction in both national and regional financial burden. The total spending on IRS fell from 4,9 to 3,7% of subvention for territorial MHI funds. The number of regions with high levels of financial losses (> 5% of federal subvention) decreased from 15–18 in 2019–2020 to 3–6 territories in 2022–2024. A significant contribution in spending lowering came from the transition to direct financing of federal medical organizations.
Keywords: interregional settlements, mandatory health insurance, federal medical organizations, health care finance
JEL: I13, I18
For citation: Sisigina N.N. (2026). Dynamics of Interterritorial Settlements in Mandatory Health Insurance System: Results of 2021–2022 Reforms. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 100–119 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-100-119.
© Sisigina N.N., 2026

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T.D. Odinokova, E.B. Dvoryadkina, N.V. Sharapova
Concepts of Insurance Cycles: The Evolution of Views from Classics to Modernity, p. 120-134
Abstract
The insurance (underwriting) cycle – the periodic alternation of ”soft” and ”hard” markets – has long remained outside the framework of systematic theory, although the practical consequences of cyclical behavior are obvious: from the profitability of insurers to regulatory strategies. The purpose of this article is to systematize the evolution of theoretical concepts of insurance cycles, highlighting the changing paradigms, their determinants, methodology and limitations. Based on an integrated methodological approach combining historical and analytical, systemic and comparative analysis, the article proposes a periodization of scientific paradigms explaining cycles: risk distribution (XIX – 1920s), market endogeneity (1950s –1980s), financial and institutional complexity (1990–2010) and hybrid system cycles (2011 – present). The novelty lies in the author’s periodization of insurance cycle paradigms. The rest of the results obtained – a systematization of modern drivers divided into direct and indirect indicators, a description of the regulator as an active participant in cycles, a description of the mechanism of shock imposition using the examples of COVID-19, cyberattacks of 2020–2023 and sanctions of 2022 for Russia – are analytical generalizations and do not claim to be independent novelty. It has been shown that after 2011, an incomplete recovery after one shock reinforces the next, putting the market in a mode of pulsating volatility.
Keywords: underwriting cycles, cyclicity in insurance, risk theory, reinsurance, climate risks, regulatory policy
JEL: G22, G18, E32
Acknowledgments: The authors express their gratitude to the anonymous reviewers and the Editorial board of the Financial Journal for their valuable comments that contributed to improving the article.
For citation: Odinokova T.D., Dvoryadkina E.B. et al. (2026). Concepts of Insurance Cycles: The Evolution of Views from Classics to Modernity. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 120–134 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-120-134.
© Odinokova T.D., Dvoryadkina E.B., Sharapova N.V., 2026

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I.N. Shvetsova
International Practice of Financial Support for Socio-economic Development at the Subfederal Level, p. 135-147
Abstract
Regional development is an important component that determines the quality of economic growth in a federal state, and the problem of its financial support requires a comprehensive solution. The study aims to analyze the international experience of financial support for regional development in countries and associations that have developed effective approaches to solving sub-federal level problems. The analysis focuses on the European Union, the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of India, and the Federal Republic of Germany. Their experiences can provide insights into approaches to solving intergovernmental budgetary issues, stimulating economic growth in regions, and financing strategic infrastructure and environmental projects. The results of the study show that successful practices of financial support for regional development programs are determined by a complex of interrelated mechanisms of interbudgetary alignment, the creation of targeted funds for the implementation of strategic projects, the promotion of competition and economic reforms at the sub-federal level, and the integration of sustainable development goals into regional policy. The use of international experience, considering country and regional specifics, is advisable when forming an optimal Russian model of financial support for socio-economic development at the sub-federal level.
Keywords: finance, budget, interbudgetary relations, financial alignment, climate financing, region, international experience, development
JEL: H70, H77, O18, R58, Q01, H54, H61
For citation: Shvetsova I.N. (2026). International Practice of Financial Support for Socio-economic Development at the Subfederal Level. Financial Journal, 18 (4), 135–147 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2026-4-135-147.
© Shvetsova I.N., 2026

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