Financial Journal №1 (35) January-February 2017
V. V. Bukharsky, A. M. Lavrov
Impact Evaluation of the Equalizing and Stimulating Effects of Intergovernmental Transfers to the Subjects of the Russian Federation
Within the current intergovernmental relations framework of the Russian Federation the emphasis is put on regional budget revenue equalization and stimulation of subnational governments to effective fiscal policy. The article contains data, calculations and methodologies, that could be used for the issues given above. There are several suggestions aimed at improving the effectiveness of the intergovernmental transfers to the regions of Russia.
Keywords: the equalizing and stimulating effects of intergovernmental transfers, interbudgetary relations, budgetary system
M. V. Milchakov
Heavily Non-Purpose Grants-Financed Russian Regions: Budgetary Conditions and Tools of State Support
The increased budget constraints on the federal level, the problem of heavily non-purpose grants-financed regions with weak own revenue base, which stability should be supported by growing share of state resources, determine the necessity for analysis of support measures efficiency. The author uses official quantitative data from open sources and analyses the features of economic and budget position of heavily non-purpose grants-financed regions in accordance with the special framework for budget process on their territory. In addition, the author considers measures of federal support in the form of non-purpose grants allocation as well as in the form of investment support connected with federal target programs execution and special economic zones functioning. The article includes proposals to improve these tools of regional development. The implementation of formulated proposals will stimulate the increase of budget expenditure efficiency and the decrease in federal support dependence.
Keywords: heavily non-purpose grants-financed regions, non-purpose grants, intergovernmental subsidies, intergovernmental transfers, regional equalization, federal target programs, special economic zones
I. V. Belyakov
Prospects of Demand for Russia’s Ruble-Denominated Debt
The paper is focused on the analysis of the ruble-denominated debt of the Russian Federation in order to evaluate opportunities for federal budget deficit financing at the required level of 1,0–1,2 % GDP per year in 2017–2019 (in terms of net borrowing). Chosen approach helps to review and characterize the investor base of the ruble-denominated public debt in Russia and evaluate the prospects for the demand growth in each of the main investor groups on the basis of statistical comparisons and qualitative conclusions. The investor base of Russia’s ruble-denominated public debt consists mainly of Russian commercial banks, non-residents and institutional investors. The analysis shows that demand of the banks is restricted due to the complex and controversial tendencies in the banking sector; the demand of the institutional investors is limited due to the consequences of the pension system reform. Therefore, it is probably that OFZ bond pricing incentives and non-market debt placement could be used for the complete implementation of the government’s borrowing program.
Keywords: public debt, funding sources, OFZ, demand generation, investor base, institutional investors
A. V. Moiseev, A. V. Murychev, D. K. Mashtakeeva, P. N. Novikov
On the Activities of the Council for Professional Qualifications of the Financial Market
The article reveals issues related to the creation and development of the system for professional qualifications of the financial market — this research was initiated by authors last year (Financial Journal № 2, 2016). It is also focused on main previous year activities of the Council for Professional Qualifications of the Financial Market, which functions and powers are performed by the Association of Participants of the Financial Market known as the Council for the Development of Professional Qualifications. This activity is carried out in close cooperation with the Ministry of Finance and other concerned institutions of Executive power, the relevance of which has increased after the adoption of the Federal Law on the Independent Evaluation of Qualifications.
Keywords: qualification, professional standard, evaluation of qualifications, professional education, finance, financial market
N. A. Avxentyev
Health Expenditure Forecast in Russia up to 2030
Health expenditures in Russia are significantly lower than in developed countries (5,6 vs. 10,0 % GDP), while private/total expenditure ratio is significantly higher (38 vs. 25 %), which both deteriorate quality and equal access to health services. However, according to Russian and foreign data, total health expenditures tend to increase in time. Employing official demographic and economic forecast we developed two scenarios for future health expenditures in Russia up to 2030: (1) accelerated scenario, which assumes increase in equity of access to healthcare compared to 2015, and (2) conservative scenario, which assumes current level of equality. Accelerated scenario predicts health expenditures to increase by 2030 to 7,8 % GDP, and conservative scenario — to 5,8 % GDP. In both scenarios the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund would run with significant deficit that could not be fully covered by measures provided by current legislation. In current economic situation government health expenditures could be even lower than it would be in conservative scenario. Given no reforms, targeting health system inefficiency, this would result in lower quality and equality of healthcare, compared to 2015 levels.
Keywords: government spending forecast, health expenditures in Russia, compulsory (mandatory) health insurance, population aging, healthcare demand, technological progress in healthcare
N. N. Sisigina
Financing of Modern Health Insurance Systems
The article deals with the development of financing mechanisms for health insurance systems since the second half of the 20th century. On the basis of the analysis of foreign countries experience the author shows that as state guarantees for free medical care are evolving compulsory health contributions role in the health financing structure is decreasing in favor of supplementary financial sources of funding. In the course of the research the author also highlights main supplementary financial sources, objectives and forms of their usage, mechanisms for stabilization of insurance financing.
Keywords: budgetary funding, voluntary health insurance, compulsory health insurance, social insurance, health insurance model, health financing
K. A. Tumanyants, I. V. Antonenko, L. V. Antosik, T. V. Shlevkova
Pension Savings Investments: Government or Private Sector?
The article presents the results of a research on investments performance of the public and private pension funds in six countries. The annual rate of return of the private pension funds is one percentage point higher than of public ones. Risk and return/risk coefficient are approximately equal. Taking into account lower costs under the monopolistic state management of pension funds, the authors come to conclusion that in Russia transfering mandatory pension savings into a common pension fund is the most preferable option. Required conditions of public successful pension investments are justified in the paper as well.
Keywords: public pension fund, private pension fund, return, risk, investment, pension savings, asset management
V. V. Vagin, N. A. Shapovalova, N. V. Gavrilova
Factors, Opportunities and Restrictions for the Development of Initiative Budgeting in the Russian Federation
In the article the author makes the attempt to reveal the factors, opportunities and restrictions for the development of initiative budgeting (IB) in the Russian Federation. The methodology of the research includes the analysis of legal documents, statistical data about realization of IB practices in the regions, expert survey findings, materials from open sources and the analysis of the regions’ participation in the Agreement on the initiative budgeting development in the Russian Federation in the years 2016–2018, which was signed between the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the World Bank. The Agreement is based on the idea of duplication of the best Russian and foreign practices in the field of IB through methodologic, educational and consultation support to the authorities of the regions of the Russian Federation. Russian regions, based on their interest to initiative budgeting practices, are systematized into two groups. There are 44 involved and 41 undecided regions revealed. The author suggests descriptive characteristics for each group of regions and gives detailed commentaries for some regions. That helps to reveal a set of factors, that contribute to the IB development in the regions. These factors are also systematized into four groups: political-administrative, economic, social and institutional. Moreover, the author offers for each group of factors the justification of why and how they determine the dynamics of IB development in regions. The practical importance of the article is the ability to stimulate and predict the further development of the IB practice in Russia.
Keywords: initiative budgeting, participatory budgeting, development factors, citizen involvement, participation of citizens, budget
O. V. Koncevich, V. Y. Cherkasov
QE4 — Inevitable and Near Future?
Guided by theses of Janet Yellen’s speech on the Symposium on Monetary Policy Prospects which took place in August 2016 in Jackson-Hole (Wyoming) we seek to comment and explain more decisively the current state of play in policy instruments use by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). At the same time, the much more important circumstance for timely understanding is that duration of a business cycle does not leave the Fed with large time margin to rise the interest rate to a level more appropriate to Taylor rule, and new round of quantitative easing becomes the possible scenario after passing of cyclical peak. “Farewell” to quantitative instruments of liquidity injection in the financial markets apparently becomes a question of even next cycle, and monetary effect of their application can be more extensive and remain longer than it is meant by the previous QE rounds. This outlook is worth the close attention of those economies in Europe and Asia, which currently also lean on quantitative tools as well as of the countries applying traditional toolkit, inter alia within inflation targeting framework.
Keywords: Fed, quantitative easing (QE), balance sheet policy, excess reserves, IOER, reverse repo, Taylor rule, business cycle