CONTENTS

E.A. Gubkova, I.A. Kamolzoda, S.S. Sudakov
Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan, p. 8-32
Abstract
Forecasting budget revenues is an important task for government agencies involved in budget planning. While preparing official forecasts, simple computations are often used. However, it might lead to inaccurate forecasts. The article is devoted to the development of a tax revenues forecasting system with high predictive power which could be used by government agencies, including those in developing countries. Our system automatically generates a large number of various econometric specifications, estimates them, and combines the forecasts they produce. The system uses time series models with exogenous regressors (causal time series models). The key exogenous variables in these models are various proxies for taxable bases, the model tax rate, as well as proxies for tax proceeds themselves. Before combining models, several of them could be selected based on their quality, i.e., how well they correspond to the presumed theoretical assumptions, how high their predicting power is, and how easy their estimates are to interpret. The system is tested on data for the Republic of Tajikistan for annual proceeds from VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax. Before testing, we analyze official data from open sources to obtain a list of relevant proxies for tax bases, and to develop a method for calculating model tax rates. Then we proceed to forecasting. By comparing the (out-of-sample) system’s forecast with the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, we show that for 2023, the system gives a lower forecasting error.
Keywords: budget revenues forecasting, econometric modeling of tax revenues, time series models with exogenous regressors, forecast error minimization
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A. et al. (2025). Econometric Forecasting of Budget Revenues: The Case of Tajikistan. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 8–32 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-8-32.
© Gubkova E.A., Kamolzoda I.A., Sudakov S.S., 2025

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N.I. Yashina, O.I. Kashina, M.V. Kazakov
Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures, p. 33-50
Abstract
Effective management of public finances is necessary to achieve such objectives as ensuring nationalsovereignty and improving the living standards of citizens. However, uneven territorial developmentleads to socio-economic disparities. This requires the development of individual trajectories and growth points for regions using adaptive budget policy. The study aims to develop a methodological tool and methods for determining the sustainability of territorial budgets, keeping in mind the financial support of program expenditures and the effective implementation of national strategic goals. The object of the study was the sustainability of Russian regions’ budgets. Statistical and economic-mathematical methods ensured the reliability of the study. It is based on the data of the Ministry of Finance and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, which allows to determine various aspects of budget sustainability and conduct an assessment to ensure the country’s strategic national priorities. An overview of current trends and factors ensuring the sustainability of territorial budgets is presented. A methodological tool for monitoring the sustainability of territorial budgets and clustering regions by levels of revenues and expenditures is proposed. It is tested on the data of budget reporting of Russian regions; the characteristics and classes of budget sustainability are defined. The sectoral, infrastructural and socio-economic regional peculiarities that determine the revenues and expenditures of regional budgets are identified. The scientific and practical significance of the study lies in the development of approaches to multidimensional assessment of budget sustainability and identification of individual national strategies of regional development and “anti-stress” scenarios of budget policy.
Keywords: budget sustainability, budget revenues and expenditures, Russian regions, clustering of territories, development strategy
JEL: H21, H50, Н61
Funding: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-01446, https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-01446/.
For citation: Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V. (2025). Integrated Assessment of Budget Sustainability of Russian Regions for the Purpose of Financial Support of Program Expenditures. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 33–50 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-33-50.
© Yashina N.I., Kashina O.I., Kazakov M.V., 2025

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I.V. Anankina, D.G. Bychkov, O.V. Smorodinov, O.A. Feoktistova
Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model, p. 51-63
Abstract
As populations age worldwide, providing effective long-term care for citizens over the age of 65 poses a serious challenge for social policymakers. In OECD countries, the fundamental principles of long-term care policy were established in the 1980s and 1990s, when the socio-economic consequences of population ageing became obvious. These countries developed comprehensive institutional and financial mechanisms for the systematic provision of long-term care services. Prior to this period, care provision in many countries remained fragmented, administered by disparate agencies and financed from uncoordinated sources. Russia initiated its long-term care system in 2018 through pilot programs, in 2023 moved to implement it nationwide. Current analysis identifies substantial deficiencies: inadequate geographic coverage, regional differences in service provision, and concentration of resources on the most complex cases. These constraints are fundamentally rooted in financing limitations. Drawing on forecasts of demand for services, we identify three development scenarios, each differentiated by the scope of citizens coverage. Our analysis suggests that an insurance-based financing model deserves to be revisited as the foundation for Russia’s long-term care system. Such a model would enhance financial sustainability and enable the system to respond effectively to upcoming demographic challenges.
Keywords: long-term care system, disabled people, persons of retirement age, persons in need of care, financing of the long-term care system, insurance model, social services
JEL: H53, I38, J14
For citation: Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A. (2025). Financing Long-term Care in Russia: A Case for an Insurance-based Model. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 51–63 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-51-63.
© Anankina I.V., Bychkov D.G., Smorodinov O.V., Feoktistova O.A., 2025

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A.Ya. Burdyak
Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia, p. 64-82
Abstract
The further progress of the National Demography Project requires a deeper analysis of its impact on reproductive behavior. Housing policy measures have a complex impact on various spheres of life. While improved housing conditions can contribute to higher fertility, this has been accompanied by a growth in mortgage lending among Russian families. Consequently, an unforeseen negative effect may emerge, whereby long-term and substantial financial obligations, particularly from mortgages, hinder families from having more children. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which households regard credit or mortgage obligations, lack of home ownership, and limited financial resources as reasons for postponing childbearing. The analysis examines how these obstacles have changed over a decade of active credit market development. The novelty of the research lies in considering debt burden as a factor of fertility rate decline, thereby offering a new framework for evaluating the outcomes of the national project and its associated measures. The analysis is based on microdata from surveys on the reproductive intentions of the population, conducted by Rosstat in 2012 and 2022. It is shown that in the medium-term retrospective, the constraining effect of poor housing conditions has decreased, all other things being equal, while the significance of debt burden as a factor in postponing childbearing has grown. The findings of this study may be of interest both to researchers in the field of demographic and social policy, and to decisionmakers.
Keywords: lending, mortgage, housing, home ownership, family mortgage program, fertility, reproductive intentions
JEL: J13, D14, H53
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Burdyak A.Ya. (2025). Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 64–82 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-64-82.
© Burdyak A.Ya., 2025

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D.A. Shatokhin, P.V. Abramov, E.I. Vasileva
Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation, p. 83-98
Abstract
This article considers the institutionalization of youth participatory budgeting in the Russian Federation as an innovative tool for involving young citizens in the process of budgetary decision-making. The authors analyze the mechanisms of integration of youth participatory budgeting into the system of public administration and public finance of the subjects of the Russian Federation and municipal entities. The methodological foundation of the research includes conceptual analysis of terminology, as well as the study of the regulatory and legal framework and the sphere of public finance.
Keywords: youth participatory budgeting, institutionalization, budgetary decision-making, innovations in participatory budgeting
JEL: H72, H76, O33
For citation: Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I. (2025). Institutionalization of Youth Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 83–98 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-83-98.
© Shatokhin D.A., Abramov P.V., Vasileva E.I., 2025

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N.S. Fedorov
Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model?, p. 99-112
Abstract
The DCF model is one of the most commonly used models in valuing companies for investment decisions. Nevertheless, estimating the accuracy of this model remains an important research question. This article presents an assessment of the accuracy of DCF model specifications based on analyzing the variance of fair share prices of companies listed on the S&P 500 stock index. The fair prices from the DCF model are calculated using artificial intelligence algorithms. The analysis of the DCF model’s accuracy includes a comparison of fair prices with market and realized prices, which increases the reliability of the empirical analysis. The study shows that the accuracy of fair prices calculated on the basis of the DCF model specifications varies depending on the financial performance of companies.
Keywords: DCF, company valuation, artificial intelligence, fair price
JEL: G32
For citation: Fedorov N.S. (2025). Does Financial Condition of Companies Affect Predictive Accuracy of the DCF-model? Financial Journal, 17 (6), 99–112 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-99-112.
© Fedorov N.S., 2025

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E. Payandi, M.R. Zezaev, L.M. Tsikanova
Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies
of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank, p. 113-129
Abstract
The digital transformation of the Russian banking sector presents a compelling example of how geopolitical, technological and regulatory forces reshape financial ecosystems under constraints. This article uses an interdisciplinary approach spanning finance, technology, business strategy, regulation, behavioral science and ethics to analyze the digital adaptation strategies of four dominant Russian banks: state-owned Sberbank and VTB, digital TBank and agriculture-focused RusAg Bank. Using a mixed methodological approach combining quantitative performance metrics with qualitative policy analysis, we evaluate how these institutions are coping with a triple challenge: Western sanctions, domestic fintech innovation, and the Central Bank of Russia’s digital ruble initiative. Three questions arise: 1) How have SWIFT exclusion and technology embargoes accelerated the development of sovereign financial technologies while limiting global interoperability. 2) Can state owned banks overcome structural inertia to match the digital agility of the private sector, as seen in Sberbank’s investments in artificial intelligence versus TBank’s SuperApp ecosystem. 3) How do the ethical dilemmas of AI bias in credit scoring to rural financial exclusion manifest differently across different types of banks. Geopolitical isolation has paradoxically spurred innovation in blockchain based payments, but also poses the risk of long-term technological stagnation. These findings carry implications for emerging markets experiencing similar constraints and for policymakers assessing the resilience of the financial ecosystem. The case of Russia shows how sanctions can catalyze the adoption of digital currencies while fragmenting the financial architecture. The article concludes by identifying key trade-offs between financial sovereignty and technological competitiveness in an era of economic nationalism.
Keywords: fintech sanctions, digital ruble, AI in finance, blockchain, financial sovereignty, neobanking, financial inclusion
JEL: G21
Note: The article is published in the author’s version.
For citation: Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M. (2025). Multidisciplinary Analysis of Digital Transformation in the Russian Banking Sector: The Cases Studies of Sberbank, TBank, VTB and RusAg Bank. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 113–129. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-113-129.
© Payandi E., Zezaev M.R., Tsikanova L.M., 2025

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O.V. Umgaeva, L.N. Ivanova
Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover, p. 130-140
Abstract
The development and implementation of the state integrated information system encompassing a wide range of participants of the precious metals and stones market, as well as the bodies that regulate it, makes the topic of digital transformation in this research area relevant and widely discussed in the professional community. The article provides an expert assessment of the mechanism of implementation of the state integrated information system in the sphere of control over the turnover of precious stones, precious metals, and precious metal products. The necessity of further improvement of the information system for tracking the circulation of precious products due to the constant change of external and internal factors and the emergence of new problems is shown. The typology of goals, objectives and results outlined in this paper makes it possible to determine the directions of improving the mechanism that ensures transparency, legality of transactions, combating money laundering and terrorism financing, protection of consumer rights, increasing the competitiveness and economic sustainability of enterprises operating in the sector.
Keywords: precious metals, precious stones, information system, labeling, digitalization of turnover
JEL: L51, M15, O38
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N. (2025). Digital Transformation of Precious Metals and Stones Turnover. Financial Journal, 17 (6), 130–140 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-6-130-140.
© Umgaeva O.V., Ivanova L.N., 2025

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CONTENTS

M.S. Makushkin
Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons, p. 8-25
Abstract
In recent years, amid the tightening of the monetary policy, floating-rate sovereign bonds (OFZ-PK) have come to play a significant role in the Russian bond market. In conditions of high interest rate volatility, they appear to be an attractive instrument for investors because they reduce the interest rate risk. This makes the analysis of OFZ-PK pricing particularly relevant. This paper uses theoretical models and actual OFZ market data to demonstrate the factors influencing the yield of OFZ-PK bonds. First, it systematizes the main types of OFZ-PK bonds available on the market and discusses the specifics of floating coupon calculation. Then, a theoretical model for evaluating OFZ-PK bonds is presented. It is shown that due to the arithmetic averaging of the floating rate inherent in most OFZ-PK, investors in such securities lose interest capitalization and become exposed to additional interest rate volatility risk. Empirical analysis of the OFZ market data revealed that OFZ-PK bonds trade at a premium to OFZ bonds with a fixed income (OFZ-PD). Most of the premium is explained by the absence of interest capitalization and interest rate volatility. It is shown that the new OFZ-PK bonds with coupons based on the RUONIA forward rate are more suitable for modeling and, in theory, should be comparable in terms of yield to OFZ-PD bonds. However, due to the limited availability of interest rate derivatives in the current Russian market, convergence between OFZ-PK and OFZ-PD yields is not always achievable. The findings of this study may be useful to investors in OFZ-PK bonds and may also be taken into account by issuers when designing the terms for placing floating-rate bonds.
Keywords: bonds, interest rate, OFZ-PK, interest rate volatility
JEL: G12, G13, E43
For citation: Makushkin M.S. (2025). Determinants of the Yield on Russian Sovereign Bonds with Floating Coupons. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-8-25.
© Makushkin M.S., 2025

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D.A. Petrova
Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries,  p. 26-39
Abstract
This study analyzes international experience in measuring fiscal policy uncertainty and provides quantitative estimates of government spending uncertainty and tax policy uncertainty for Russia from April 2011 to June 2024. The analysis of empirical studies showed that the main periods of fiscal policy uncertainty in the international context are periods of political instability and elections, fiscal and budget debates, large budget deficits, economic crises, and external shocks such as the Gulf wars and the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Google Trends searches on “fiscal policy” and time-varying volatility of government expenditures calculated on the basis of stochastic volatility models are used to estimate fiscal policy uncertainty on Russian data. Composite indices of fiscal, budget and tax policies uncertainty based on internet queries on Google were obtained using principal component analysis. Stochastic volatility models were estimated for the fiscal instrument on a quarterly basis. The results of the empirical analysis made identified key periods of fiscal policy uncertainty for Russia during the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2024: the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the geopolitical risks in 2022.
Keywords: fiscal policy uncertainty, government spending policy uncertainty, search queries, internet data, government spending, stochastic volatility model
JEL: E62, D80, C11
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Petrova D.A. (2025). Assessing Economic Policy Uncertainty Using Search Queries. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 26–39 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-26-39.
© Petrova D.A., 2025

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L.V. Barabanova, S.V. Arzhenovskiy, L.V. Antosik, K.A. Tumanyants
Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organizations: A Regional Perspective,  p. 40-58
Abstract
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of works devoted to its topic and based on Russian data. The purpose is to estimate the impact of the shadow economy on the profitability of legally operating companies in Russia, taking into account regional heterogeneity. The information base consisted of annual data from Rosstat and the Federal Treasury for the period from 2014 to 2022 by region. For econometric modeling, the authors used models with composite error on panel data, with spatial effects, as well as a dynamic model with a lagging dependent variable of the profitability level of the regional economy, calculated by Rosstat. The control variables are the autonomy coefficient, the level of regional subsidies, real monetary income and the unemployment rate. The results of econometric modeling empirically prove that an increase in the share of the shadow sector in gross regional product leads to a decrease in the profitability of sales/services and, consequently, to a decrease in the efficiency of the official economic activities of enterprises. The results obtained a) expand the set of factors that can explain fluctuations in the profitability of enterprises in official statistics; b) allow to conclude that the benefits of legal entrepreneurial activity do not yet compensate for the advantages of unofficial business in Russia. In this regard, the state should continue its efforts to change the ratio between them in favor of observed entrepreneurial activity.
Keywords: shadow economy, Russian regions, profitability, panel data, regression analysis
JEL: C23, E26, G32, R15
Acknowledgments: the authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments which helped to improve the text of the article.
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the authors. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. All errors in this article, if any, are the responsibility of the authors.
For citation: Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A. (2025). Does the Shadow Sector Affect the Profitability of Organisations: A Regional Perspective. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 40–58 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-40-58.
© Barabanova L.V., Arzhenovskiy S.V., Antosik L.V., Tumanyants K.A., 2025

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M.V. Sigova
Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies,  p. 59-75
Abstract
Social risks, intensifying due to high income differentiation of the population and uneven territorial development of Russia, increase the relevance of research aimed at finding ways to involve companies in solving social problems in their regions of operation, clarifying theoretical provisions and developing methodological tools for social investment. The article proposes, for the first time, an approach to assessing the social inclusiveness/exclusiveness of companies. The purpose of the work is to justify an approach to measuring the social orientation of investments as a trend in the development of Russian companies. This study confirms the need to address the problem of aligning two groups of benefits when implementing socially responsible investments: corporate benefits, which characterize the company’s exclusiveness, and social benefits, which characterize its inclusiveness and arise from the use of its financial resources to implement social development projects in its region of operation. The article shows that the meaning of the term “socially responsible investment” is not clearly defined and quantitative studies are limited by the availability of data for assessment. The possibilities of using data on securities issuance and companies’ investments in socially oriented projects are considered. A company’s position in the ESG rating is used as an indirect indicator of socially responsible investments. An approach to assessing a company’s social inclusiveness, which occurs when investments are directed toward developing the region of operation and its social exclusiveness, corresponding to its orientation toward using the financial resources to solve its own social problems, is proposed. Testing of the approach showed the heterogeneity and instability in assessments and determined the direction of further research, i.e. identifying industry and regional characteristics of social inclusiveness/exclusiveness.
Keywords: socially responsible investment, company’s region of operation, investment focus, social inclusion, social exclusion
JEL: G32, Q01
For citation: Sigova M.V. (2025). Socially Responsible Investment and Social Inclusion of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 59–75 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-59-75.
© Sigova M.V., 2025

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E.A. Kopalkina, M.G. Arustamyan, M.M. Minasyan, S.A. Avetisyan, R.Y. Mangasaryan
Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects, p. 76-92
Abstract
This article presents a meta-analysis of the Russian green finance market based on open sources and regulatory documents. Since 2018, green instruments have been actively introduced in the Russian financial market. After the imposition of sanctions against Russia and the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the their issuance has significantly decreased. Nevertheless, green financial instruments in Russia continue to function, demonstrating certain adaptive tendencies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current state of the Russian green finance market and to identify the prospects for its further development under the sanctions pressure. The paper summarizes the trends in the issuance of sustainable bonds in 2023–2024, identifies the types of green financial instruments commonly used in Russian practice, and considers potential directions for their diversification. The authors came to the following conclusions: 1) Russia has significant potential for the development of green finance at both the corporate and governmental levels; 2) Due to the increase in the key interest rate and other factors related to the complicated geopolitical situation, the volume of sustainable bond issuance in 2024 reached a record low; 3) Despite this, certain positive trends can be observed — the authorities are planning new projects and initiatives that could revitalize the sustainable bond market, and new green financial instruments continue to emerge; 4) Further activation of the market requires institutionalizing ESG culture among participants and increasing their competencies in green finance. Government authorities should popularize green financial instruments, in particular by reducing the level of transaction costs for issuers when issuing sustainable bonds and developing additional incentives for participants in this market.
Keywords: ESG, green financial instruments, sustainable development, green bonds, green mortgage, blue bonds
JEL: F34, H63, Q01
For citation: Kopalkina E. A., Arustamyan M. G. and al. (2025). Current State of the Green Finance Market in Russia and Its Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 76–92 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-76-92.
© Kopalkina E.A., Arustamyan M.G., Minasyan M.M., Avetisyan S.A., Mangasaryan R.Y., 2025

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P.O. Shchukina, P.A. Lavrinenko, A.G. Mirzoyan, A.A. Galich
The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian
Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis, p. 93-109
Abstract
The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of various approaches to the construction of corporate governance quality indices and their relationship with dividend payments of companies in the Russian stock market. The main emphasis is placed on the comparison of two approaches to assessing the quality of corporate governance: the first is based on compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the second is based on the analysis of objective characteristics of the board of directors. The data used are characteristics of 28 public companies in the Russian stock market for the period from 2010 to 2024. Two methods were used to construct indices: equal weights and the principal component method. As a result of constructing regression models for the period up to 2022, a positive correlation between the quality of corporate governance and dividend payments was revealed. Using the random forest model, it was demonstrated that the highest explanatory power was shown by the index that included both objective characteristics of the board of directors and variables reflecting compliance with the recommendations of the Bank of Russia’s Corporate Governance Code, while the lowest was shown by the index that took into account only the characteristics of the board of directors with equal weights. Nevertheless, a structural shift is observed in 2023 and 2024: the constructed indices have ceased to be significant predictors of dividend payments.
Keywords: corporate governance, index, dividend payments, board of directors
JEL: G34, G35
For citation: Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A. (2025). The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indices and Dividend Payments of Russian Stock Market Companies: A Comparative Analysis. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 93–109 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-93-109.
© Shchukina P.O., Lavrinenko P.A., Mirzoyan A.G., Galich A.A., 2025

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L.V. Polezharova, D.M. Volkov
Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia, p. 110-125
Abstract
The priority directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation on the development of investment activities in the country in projects related to the achievement of technological sovereignty and structural adaptation of the economy makes necessary effective use of fiscal incentive instruments for the most knowledge-intensive and promising sectors of the economy. The purpose of the article is to propose conceptual approaches to improving Russia’s tax policy in order to increase the efficiency of R&D. The fiscal instruments and approaches to R&D stimulation successfully used in economically and technologically highly developed foreign countries, which are to be considered in Russia, are highlighted. The indicators of the amount of implied tax subsidies for R&D expenditures, as well as indicators of the country’s gross R&D expenditures in relation to its GDP, were analyzed by countries for the period 2010–2023, and an empirical assessment of the degree and level of actual use of fiscal incentives for R&D was carried out. A theoretical assessment of the reasons for the insufficient degree of their use was also carried out. The ways of improving Russia’s tax policy to increase the effectiveness of R&D tax incentives and demand for them in order to achieve technological sovereignty of the country’s economy are proposed.
Keywords: tax incentives for R&D, tax incentives, R&D expenditure, tax policy in the field of R&D support
JEL: F23, H25, H26
For citation: Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M. (2025). Tax Incentives for Scientific and Technological Development: Experience of Foreign Countries and Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 110–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-110-125.
© Polezharova L.V., Volkov D.M., 2025

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I.A. Mayburov
Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects, p. 126-142
Abstract
The technological aspect of innovation stimulation is becoming central for Russia, since the introduction of new technologies is one of the most important factors affecting the economy’s ability to remain sustainable in the context of sanctions restrictions and cut-off from the transfer of breakthrough technologies. The task of the state to improve the efficiency of its fiscal policy with regard to stimulating innovation is highly relevant. In the course of the review we tried to answer the following questions: What impact do the main instruments of fiscal policy have on innovation stimulation? Which effects of innovation incentives are positive and which are negative, and what recommendations can increase the efficiency of fiscal policy? The purpose of this article was to identify the effects generated by the main instruments of innovation stimulation (tax incentives and budget subsidies) and to develop recommendations for the formation of effective fiscal policy. For the theoretical review the protocol of multistage selection of high-quality articles was used. The principle of incentive efficiency was substantiated and its decomposition into constituent effects was performed. Twelve incentive effects were identified. In the process of fiscal stimulation, the manifestation of six positive effects is revealed: the signal effect and the effects of knowledge spillover, productivity, high-tech companies, and market failure correction. Four negative effects are identified: crowding out, substitution, small and excessive incentives, and policy uncertainty. Two mixed effects are also identified: imitation and scale. The author's recommendations to strengthen the positive and mixed effects and neutralize the negative effects of innovation incentives are presented.
Keywords: fiscal stimulation, budget subsidies, tax breaks, incentive effects, innovation, R&D, efficiency
JEL: H21, H25
Funding: The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided valuable scientific guidance for this study.
For citation: Mayburov I.A. (2025). Fiscal Incentives for Innovation in Foreign Countries: An Analytical Review of Positive and Negative Effects. Financial Journal, 17 (5), 126–142 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-5-126-142.
© Mayburov I.A., 2025

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CONTENTS

I.A. Balyuk, M.A. Balyuk
Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects, p. 8-25
Abstract
The article analyzes Russia's participation in the functioning of international financial institutions (IFIs) under external sanctions. The purpose of this study is to systematize IFIs with Russian membership, identify promising IFIs taking into account the transformation of Russia’s foreign economic relations, and develop recommendations for Russia’s further interaction with various IFIs in the context of tightening external sanctions. The research methodology includes qualitative and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis involves systematizing IFIs with Russian membership according to functional and geographical criteria. Quantitative analysis aims to compare various IFIs with Russian membership implementing fundamental economic and statistical indicators. Based on the results and specifics of their activities, a classification of IFIs was developed and the main characteristics of IFIs were defined. It was found that not all IFIs in which Russia participates are important from the point of view of the new paradigm of our country’s international financial relations. It is advisable for Russia to maintain its membership in most global and regional IFIs, provided that participation does not involve significant financial costs and does not imply the mandatory fulfillment of any requirements that contradict the country’s national interests. One of the key findings of the research is that within traditional IFIs it is extremely important for Russia to intensify cooperation with friendly countries (primarily with BRICS+) in order to strengthen its role and influence in the international arena.
Keywords: Russia, international financial institutions, regime of external sanctions, IMF, World Bank, BRICS+
JEL: F33, F36, G15, G21
For citation: Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A. (2025). Russia’s Participation in International Financial Institutions under External Sanctions: Problems and Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 8–25 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-8-25.
© Balyuk I.A., Balyuk M.A., 2025

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E. V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, E.D. Dzhaokhadze
Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements, p. 26-43
Abstract
A new payment infrastructure based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can improve the efficiency of cross-border payments. Currently, the main focus of research in this area is on creating and testing the advantages of multi-CBDC platforms: preliminary results indicate the potential for making international payments faster, less expensive and more accessible. To build an effective cross-border payment infrastructure based on digital currencies, it is important that monetary authorities consider international payments, among other uses, when designing CBDCs. As one of the main elements of digital currency design, the IMF recommends that central banks consider access and communication issues, measures to ensure sufficient liquidity of foreign financial intermediaries, and measures to control possible risks such as the effect of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, capital flight and currency substitution. The economic community expects the digital ruble to be launched into circulation in 2026. It will be mainly used for domestic payments, but the Bank of Russia is also discussing the possibility of using it for cross-border payments. It is therefore important to discuss the conformity of the current design of the digital ruble with existing international standards and recommendations for the design of the CBDC with cross-border use in mind. Despite the fact that the current design of the digital ruble is primarily focused on the Russian financial market, it is relatively easy to reconfigure it for cross-border settlements.
Keywords: central bank digital currency, retail CBDC, wholesale CBDC, digital ruble, central bank, cross-border settlements
JEL: Е40, Е44, E51, F29, F33, F39
Funding: This article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D. (2025). Wholesale CBDC Payment Systems and the Potential of the Digital Ruble in Cross-border Settlements. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 26–43 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-26-43.
© Sinelnikova-Muryleva E.V., Dzhaokhadze E.D., 2025

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G.V. Morunova, V.A. Fedosov, A.S. Saltykov
Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development, p. 44-61
Abstract
Active development of information systems of the budget process in Russia and other countries actualizes the importance of research in this area. Without the use of information systems it is difficult to imagine the work of public authorities on budgeting and budget execution. The purpose of the study is to analyze the functioning of information systems that ensure the process of planning, execution and control of the execution of the federal budget and regional budgets, as well as to substantiate the prospective directions of their development. The object of the study is the financial management information systems in the Russian Federation and its constituent entities. In Russia at the regional level there is no unified model of implementation of information systems of public finance management, so the subjects of the Russian Federation acted in two main directions: development of their own information systems and purchase of standard software products from specialized developers. The study reveals that the following directions of development of financial management information systems in the Russian regions are possible: 1) a decentralized approach on the part of federal authorities with the possibility for Russian regions to use their own software solutions; 2) the creation of all-Russian financial management information systems (or a unified financial management information system) to which Russian regions can be connected. The article pays special attention to the second option, taking into account the need for a balanced and responsible policy in this area in order to preserve the regions’ ability to effectively implement the budget process while taking into account the existing practices.
Keywords: budget process, information systems, financial management information systems, digitalization, regions of the Russian Federation, public finance management
JEL: H10, H70
For citation: Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S. (2025). Financial Management Information Systems in Russia: Current State and Prospects of Development. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 44–61 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-44-61.
© Morunova G.V., Fedosov V.A., Saltykov A.S., 2025

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M.E. Kosov, A.P. Platonov, S.B. Reshetnikov, T.K. Chernysheva
The Impact of Sanction Restrictions on the Financial and Banking Sectors of the Russian Federation, p. 62-82
The article was retracted on November 14, 2025.

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L.Yu. Lysova, E.L. Prokopjeva
Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System, p. 83-103
Abstract
The key tasks for the Russian economy are to attract long-term financial resources and improve the standard of living of citizens of retirement age. The article examines mechanisms and tools for addressing these issues, drawing on foreign practices and the domestic potential of the pension system. The research methodology includes a comparative analysis of pension models in different countries and a summary of their characteristics, including sources of funding, age parameters, and income levels. Pension systems in different countries are ranked according to the level of pension payments in GDP and citizens’ participation in their pension provision. The study of the Russian pension system provides a chronology, pension provision indicators, and the profitability of pension reserves. It has been found that the share of non-state pension provision in the structure of citizens’ savings and investment products is insignificant. An assessment was made of the prospects for pension provision instruments — long-term savings programs and pension programs offered by life insurance companies; their advantages, risks, and role in the formation of investment resources were outlined. As a result, general trends were identified in the formation and implementation of pension provision in global practice, taking into account population aging and the increase in the retirement age, more active participation of employers and citizens in the formation of pension savings, and increased flexibility of pension plans considering the individual profile of the consumer. Foreign experience and domestic history of pension system’s formation are of interest for developing strategic directions for its development in Russia and increasing its efficiency. To address this issue, the authors propose the following measures: expanding programs to encourage employers and employees, including self-employed individuals, to participate in non-state pension provision; increasing the flexibility of individual pension plans offered by non-state pension funds; encouraging life insurance companies to participate in pension provision; modernizing and increasing the attractiveness of longterm savings programs and similar savings products for citizens. These measures will contribute to improving the standard of living of citizens in the medium and long term and can serve as a stable source of long-term funds in the economy.
Keywords: pension system, long money, investments, pension models, long-term savings program, life insurance
JEL: G23, H55, I38
For citation: Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L. (2025). Potential for Long-term Money in Russia's Pension System. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 83–103 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-83-103.
© Lysova L.Yu., Prokopjeva E.L., 2025

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N.Yu. Kamenskaya, K.V. Shvandar, A.R. Grigoryev
Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants, p. 104-118
Abstract
The relevance of studying the forms, methods and ways of providing pension services to the population of different countries of the world is not weakening. The reason is constant changes occurring in various spheres of national economies, and primarily in the structure of the labor force and population, as well as the state of financial markets. Without monitoring of the ongoing changes and development of measures to control and overcome negative trends (such as the rapid aging of the labor force observed in South Korea), it is difficult to promptly prevent the growing imbalances of the national pension systems. The purpose of this article is to present the results of a study of civil servants pension models in a number of countries with developed pension systems, including the United States, South Korea, South Africa, Canada and the Netherlands. The study revealed that most of the countries reviewed have recently undergone pension system reforms that affected civil servants’ pensions. At the same time, there are more differences than commonalities in the models of organization of pension provision for civil servants in these countries. Thus, there is a different degree of integration of pension provision for public and private sector employees, the shares of civil servants in the total labor force vary greatly, the rates of replacement of labor income by pensions differ almost twice, etc. However, the government in these countries has not only found an adequate balance between the levels of the pension system, but also constantly improves them depending on external and internal conditions, trying to maintain the stability of the national pension system.
Keywords: pension system, civil servant pensions, replacement rate, USA, South Korea, South Africa, Canada, Netherlands
JEL: H55, I38, J26
For citation: Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R. (2025). Foreign Experience in Improving Pension Provision for Civil Servants. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 104–118 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-104-118.
© Kamenskaya N.Yu., Shvandar K.V. , Grigoryev A.R., 2025

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I.V. Naumov, N.L. Nikulina, A.A. Bychkova
Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region, p. 119-136
Abstract
The subject of the study is forecasting of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in the metallurgical industry. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as currency exchange rate dynamics, investments in fixed capital, the degree of depreciation of fixed assets and asset turnover, on the financial stability of enterprises in the industry. The objective of the work is to develop scenario models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region using control variables characterizing the influence of economic factors. The authors used regression analysis and autoregressive modeling (ARIMA/ARMA). Inertial, extremely pessimistic and optimistic forecasts were constructed for changes in key factors affecting the stability of enterprises in the metallurgical sector (from the level of depreciation of fixed assets, the volume of investments in fixed capital, the production technologies used, the growth of foreign currency exchange rates, etc.), as well as corresponding forecast scenarios for the probability of their bankruptcy. Forecasting the probability of bankruptcy among metallurgical enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region shows that large enterprises have moderate financial stability, while small and medium-sized enterprises are exposed to significant risks. The scenario analysis revealed the key role of technological renewal and investment in fixed assets as factors that increase the stability of enterprises. The methodological approach proposed in the paper allows to determine the financial stability of enterprises, assess the probability of their bankruptcy and the impact of the key factors using a regression model, forecast the dynamics of these factors using autoregressive modeling with a moving average, and design forecast scenarios. This approach can be applied in strategic planning and development of state support measures for enterprises aimed at reducing bankruptcy risks and ensuring sustainable development of the industry.
Keywords: probability of bankruptcy, regression analysis, ARIMA modeling, metallurgy, forecast, region
JEL: G33
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 24-28-00704 "Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy in Industries in the Sverdlovsk Region" (https://rscf.ru/project/24-28-00704/).
For citation: Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A. (2025). Modeling Scenarios and Forecasting Risks of Bankruptcy for Metallurgical Enterprises: The Case of the Sverdlovsk Region. Financial Journal, 17 (4), 119–136 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-4-119-136.
© Naumov I.V., Nikulina N.L., Bychkova A.A., 2025

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CONTENTS

M.R. Pinskaya, Yu.A. Steshenko
Efficiency of Application of Tax on Additional Income from Hydrocarbon Raw Materials, p. 8-24
Abstract
Despite an increase in the share of non-oil and gas revenues in the federal budget of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy is still largely dependent on oil and gas revenues. As a result of the tax reform in the oil and gas sector, the role of revenues from the tax on additional income from hydrocarbons (hereinafter referred to as the TAI regime) has significantly increased, as well asthe quantity of mineral resources extracted in subsoil areas where TAI is applied. The TAI regime is preferential, since it implies the availability of tax incentives and a significant amount of tax expenses arising from their application. However, ineffective tax benefits that result in tax expenditures may significantly limit the growth and development of the oil sector in Russia. It should also be noted that the negative impact on the environment and carbon footprint is increasing due to the growth of production volumes. That is why the topic of this study is relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify the key features of taxation of subsoil areas where the TAI regime is applied and to assess the effectiveness of the comprehensive tax incentive. The hypothesis of the study is that the amount of tax expenditures resulting from the application of the TAI regime is lower than the volume of investments and the amount of tax expenditures in subsoil areas where the TAI regime is applied. As a methodological basis, a system analysis of the provisions of legislation in the field of taxation of natural resources was used. The effectiveness of the TAI regime was assessed using the methods of statistical data analysis. The study creates a methodological tool for assessing the effectiveness of investment-oriented tax incentives, which includes the TAI regime, thereby contributing to the growth of knowledge in the area of taxation theory. From an applied point of view, the results are useful for the development and justification of decisions on improving and (or) expanding the TAI regime in Russia.
Keywords: tax on additional income from hydrocarbon extraction, tax on mineral extraction, investment, comprehensive benefit, tax expenditures, oil and gas revenues, tax incentives, carbon footprint
JEL: H21, H22, H23
For citation: Pinskaya M.R., Steshenko Yu.A. (2025). Efficiency of Application of Tax on Additional Income from Hydrocarbon Production. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 8-24 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-8-24.
© Pinskaya M.R., Steshenko Yu.A., 2025

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I.Yu. Arlashkin
Improving the Assessment of Regional Tax Capacity by Selected Types of Taxes, p. 25-38
Abstract
Sub-federal authorities have the power to administer transportation tax, gambling tax, local taxes and taxes on total income, including setting rates, providing benefits or determining the tax base, which makes these taxes an important instrument of sub-national revenue policy. Together with the state duty, they make up about 10% of sub-federal tax revenues and are generally referred to as other types of taxes when assessing tax capacity in calculating fiscal equalization grants to regions. Given the increasing role of other types of taxes, the task of correct assessment of tax potential for them is becoming more and more urgent. The article examines the relationship between a region’s share in actual revenues from other types of taxes, a region’s share in the total labor force and a region’s shares in actual revenues from individual taxes using a sample of 85 regions for 2019–2023. The panel regression model employs individual fixed effects, which allows us to account for the impact of region-specific factors, including the level of regional tax competition, such as reduced tax rates and additional tax benefits. The assessment results show that the tax capacity for other types of taxes is proportional to the region’s share in the total labor force and the region’s share in the tax potential for personal income tax. These results allow us to refine the formula for assessing tax capacity for other types of taxes. Since the Russian tax system is currently undergoing significant changes, including those related to profit tax and tax levied in connection with the application of the simplified tax system, the obtained estimates can be subsequently refined using new data.
Keywords: tax capacity, fiscal capacity, equalization grants, fiscal equalization, regional budgets
JEL: H73, H77
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
For citation: Arlashkin I.Yu. (2025). Improving the Assessment of Regional Tax Capacity by Selected Types of Taxes. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 25–38 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-25-38.
© Arlashkin I.Yu., 2025

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A.V. Tikhonova, M.V. Pyanova
Tax Mechanism to Counteract Business Fragmentation in Agriculture, p. 39-53
Abstract
The subject of this study is tax risks of agricultural producers associated with business fragmentation. The purpose of the study is to develop proposals for improving taxation and tax control in agriculture, contributing to the reduction of business fragmentation risks. The specific features of taxation in agriculture is conditioned by the mandatory compliance with the share of qualifying revenue from the sale of agricultural products and products of their primary and subsequent processing. This leads to the risk of business fragmentation for dishonest taxpayers. The authors analyze general approaches to identifying business fragmentation schemes and identify the criteria for artificial business fragmentation on the basis of arbitration practice materials and clarifications of the Federal Tax Service. А typical splitting scheme in agriculture is presented and disclosed. It is derived from tax incentives and preferences in agriculture, systematized in tabular form. The existing concept of risk-based approach of tax authorities does not contain special industry criteria. The study proposes a three-element mechanism for preventing splitting risks in agriculture and develops criteria for identifying illegal tax optimization schemes in the industry. The proposed mechanism includes simplification of the procedure for the application of tax incentives; establishment of indicators of “voluntary” use of benefits in agriculture; strengthening of tax control over transactions involving business splitting. The proposals contribute to a more effective implementation of the following classical and modern principles of taxation: fairness, equal competition, plurality of taxation in the sectoral context. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive development of a new methodological approach to the formation of a mechanism for preventing the risks of business fragmentation in agriculture, taking into account the current capabilities of tax authorities and sectoral features of the economy. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the authors’ proposals by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Federal Tax Service of Russia when elaborating measures for the development of agriculture and sectoral tax control.
Keywords: tax benefits, zero rate, agricultural stimulation, qualifying revenue, Unified Agricultural Tax
JEL: H26, E62
Funding: The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University.
For citation: Tikhonova A.V., Pyanova M.V. (2025). Tax Mechanism to Counteract Business Fragmentation in Agriculture. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 39–53 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-39-53.
© Tikhonova A.V., Pyanova M.V., 2025

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A.I. Pogorletskiy
Tax Evasion in the Modern World: Institutional Aspects, p. 54-71
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to systematize the institutional characteristics of tax evasion in the system of international economic relations. The role of institutional structures in preventing individuals and legal entities from failing to fulfill their tax obligations is characterized. The object of the research is the institutional environment that constitutes the mechanisms of tax evasion at the national and global levels. The research methodology includes graphical and comparative methods, as well as system and functional approaches to the characterization of institutions and socio-economic phenomena in the context of tax evasion. Historical and logical analysis of institutional aspects of this phenomenon in the global economic environment is carried out. The information base consists of fundamental works on the identification of the causes and consequences of tax evasion, published by leading theorists of financial and tax science, as well as authoritative classic and modern works in the fields of social sciences. In order to assess the scale and impact of tax evasion on the modern system of global economic relations, reports and studies of international organizations (OECD, UN, IMF, etc.) and a number of research centers were used. The hypothesis of the study was that institutional factors are significant both for explaining the causes of tax evasion and for choosing appropriate mechanisms to counteract this phenomenon. The research resulted in a typology of institutional preconditions and consequences of tax evasion, previously absent in existing publications and first proposed by the author, designed to help regulators to have more meaningful impact on this process in the contemporary world economy. The main findings suggest that institutional factors significantly affect tax evasion. Formal rules of taxation established by the state, as well as tacit moral and ethical norms of behavior based on culture and religion, determine the behavior of individuals and business entities, the influence on which by interstate institutional structures of tax regulation seems necessary.
Keywords: global tax regulation, institutes of tax behavior, institutes of tax regulation, institutes of taxation, offshore activities, tax evasion, tax optimization
JEL: B52, F55, H26
Funding: The article is based on the results of the research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds within the framework of the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
For citation: Pogorletskiy A.I. (2025). Tax Evasion in the Modern World: Institutional Aspects. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 54–71 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-54-71.
© Pogorletskiy A.I., 2025

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N.E. Barbashova, O.V. Suchkova
Application of Financial Management Tools to Ensure Budget Balance and Debt Sustainability in Russian Regions, p. 72-89
Abstract
One of the priority task of the budget policy of the Russian Federation is to ensure long-term balance and debt sustainability at all levels of the budget system. To solve this task, the subjects of the Russian Federation implement programs and sets of measures of improving the quality of financial management. The purpose of this article is to identify the tools of regional finance management, the use of which is most effective for ensuring medium- and long-term balance and debt sustainability of the budgets of Russian regions. The article analyzes theoretical approaches to the use of regional financial management tools. The inventory of programs and sets of measures aimed at improving the efficiency and quality of financial management used by the subjects of the Russian Federation in the period from 2000 to the present is carried out. By means of econometric analysis, the authors identify the directions of regional financial management programs, the implementation of which has a positive impact on the balance and debt sustainability of regional budgets. These areas include limiting the regional budget deficit, limiting the amounts of regional and municipal debt, setting a debt repayment schedule, stimulating income growth and reducing inefficient expenditures. A list of the most effective measures to limit the deficit and debt was compiled, based on the analysis of the practice of the subjects of the Russian Federation which demonstrated a significant improvement in the parameters of the budget balance and public debt in 2014–2023.
Keywords: regional financial management tools, budget balance, debt sustainability
JEL: H61, H62, H63
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Barbashova N.E., Suchkova O.V. (2025). Application of Financial Management Tools to Ensure Budget Balance and Debt Sustainability in Russian Regions. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 72–89 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-72-89.
© Barbashova N.E., Suchkova O.V., 2025

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A.I. Lukashov
Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Treasury Financial Control in the Context of Improving Financial Discipline, p. 90-107
Abstract
The article considers the key aspects of introduction and prospects of development of certain types of treasury services, treasury support and budget (treasury) monitoring. These mechanisms, based on the current form of control, allow to minimize various violations, which helps to increase the financial discipline of participants and non-participants of the budget process. A new term — "treasury financial control" — is introduced into scientific discourse. The methodology for determining the effectiveness and efficiency of treasury services and treasury support is proposed, the use of which will contribute, on the one hand, to the expansion of the theoretical basis for the study of the treasury system, on the other hand, to obtaining an objective assessment of the application of these mechanisms.
Keywords: Treasury of Russia, treasury financial control, treasury services, treasury support, budget monitoring
JEL: Е62, E63, Н61, Н72, G28, P35
For citation: Lukashov A.I. (2025). Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Treasury Financial Control in the Context of Improving Financial Discipline. Financial Journal, 17 (3), X90–107 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-90-107.
© Lukashov A.I., 2025

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E.P. Dobronravova
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Loan and Deposit Rates in the Context of Limited Capital Mobility in Russia, p. 108-125
Abstract
According to the macroeconomic theory, capital controls should improve the transmission of interest rates from the monetary policy rate to market-based short- and long-term rates, as the latter are less affected by global financial conditions. We test this hypothesis using the case of the Russian economy, which faces massive domestic and external restrictions on capital flows in 2022–2024. During this period, the pass-through of interest rates could be reduced: for long-term deposits — by the high level of uncertainty in the Russian economy, for credit rates — by broad preferential lending programs: mortgages, SME lending, agricultural lending, etc. The study was conducted using the error correction model, which is commonly used in modeling the pass-through of interest rates in the credit and deposit markets. Such a model allows us to estimate the short- and long-run effects of a change in the monetary policy rate, as well as the speed of adjustment to a new long-run equilibrium. Proxy variables for capital restrictions and preferential lending were included in the model as a change in the slope to the monetary policy rate. The results of the analysis show that both short- and long-run pass-throughs in the retail deposit market have intensified since March 2022. Moreover, when we add a control variable reflecting the extent of preferential lending, we are able to confirm our hypothesis for long-term interest rates on individual credits and short-term interest rates on credits to non-financial organizations. The expansion of preferential lending in most model specifications had a negative impact on the effectiveness of passthrough lending.
Keywords: monetary policy, capital controls, interest rate pass through, deposit rates, lending rates, preferential lending, econometric analysis
JEL: C22, E43, E52, E58
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Dobronravova E.P. (2025). The Impact of Monetary Policy on Loan and Deposit Rates in the Context of Limited Capital Mobility in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 108–125 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-108-125.
© Dobronravova E.P., 2025

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E.M. Pastukhov, S.V. Grishunin
Assessing the Impact of the Digital Ruble on Commercial Bank Deposits in Russia, p. 126-140
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to present a model for assessing the impact of the implementation of the digital ruble project on commercial banks’ deposits in the Russian financial market. The relevance of this research is due to the rapid growth of market capitalization of central banks’ digital currencies in both international and Russian financial markets, as more and more countries are preparing to launch their own national digital currencies. However, there is a lack of information in both academic and practical literature regarding the potential impact of central bank digital currencies, including the digital ruble, on the stability of commercial banks, particularly concerning deposits. We propose a model to estimate the impact of the digital ruble on the size of deposits of commercial banks in Russia. The data used for the study included official statistics and analytics of the Bank of Russia and commercial banks. Based on the results of the analysis, we conclude that the effects of the digital ruble implementation are heterogeneous and do not differ much between categories of banks in terms of capital and investments in government securities, but are significantly differentiated depending on the size of assets and level of overdue debt. Furthermore, we suggest that the effect of the digital ruble will diminish over time. Future research could focus on quantifying the wide range of risks associated with the introduction of digital financial assets, as well as modeling the supply and demand for these assets, including potential practical adaptations by banks to changes in market conditions.
Keywords: CBDC, digital ruble, digital assets, digital financial assets, digital finance
JEL: G21
Funding: The research was supported by RSF (project No. 23-18-00756).
For citation: Pastukhov E.M., Grishunin S.V. (2025). Assessing the Impact of the Digital Ruble on Commercial Bank Deposits in Russia. Financial Journal, 17 (3), 126–140 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-3-126-140.
© Pastukhov E.M., Grishunin S.V., 2025

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