Eng 
Рус Financial Journal Vol.17 No.1 2025
CONTENTS
A.E. Abramov, M.I. Chernova, A.G. Kosyrev
Private and Collective Direct Investments in Popular Shares of Russian Companies, p. 8-26
Abstract
The arrival of tens of millions of private investors to the stock exchange and their involvement in direct stock trading increases the relevance of empirical studies of the effectiveness of their strategies. The article analyzes for the first time the return and risks of the so-called people's portfolio published by the Moscow Exchange. The aim is to study the profitability and risks associated with investing in the most popular stocks on the Russian market, which are highlighted by the publication of the people's portfolio. This study confirms the phenomenon of “wisdom of the crowd” in the domestic stock market, as it shows that the yield of the people's portfolio is comparable with or even higher than that of the widely used Moscow Exchange indices. We reveal similar patterns in the investment preferences of private investors among Russian and American brokers. At the same time, the risk of herding behavior of private investors keeps increasing along with the concentration of their trades in a narrow range of high-profile stocks. In contrast to traditional mechanisms of increasing the risk of investors’ herding behavior through social networks and online brokerage applications, we show that popularization of people's portfolio by the stock exchange can have a similar effect. The returns of the people's portfolioare significantly lower than more diversified portfolios of Russian companies, which increases private investors’ risks from active trading strategies. The growing popularity of exchange-traded mutual funds does not yet allow private investors to take advantage of broader diversification, as the assets of these funds are dominated by the same stocks as in the people's portfolio. Investing in more diversified passive factor strategies could significantly improve the performance of both private investors and exchange-traded funds compared to investing in people's portfolio stocks. It would also help to improve the financing of new and growing companies on the Moscow Exchange.
Keywords: people’s portfolio, stock market, private investor, factor strategies, mutual investment funds, diversification
JEL: G10, G11, G17, G40
Funding: The article was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Kosyrev A.G. (2025). Private and Collective Direct Investments in Popular Shares of Russian Companies. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 8–26 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-8-26.
© Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Kosyrev A.G., 2025
V. I. Bartenev
Guarantee Instruments in International Development Finance: Factors, Dynamics and Prospects, p. 27-44
Abstract
This paper examines the role of guarantee instruments in the modern system of international development finance and unveils the key factors affecting the dynamics and prospects of their use. The analysis shows that these instruments have existed for decades, but have gained prominence in the XXI century. Their recognition as indispensable tools for mitigating risks to private capital, particularly political risks, has been reflected in more mentions in milestone policy documents, organizational and intellectual efforts to revise statistical reporting rules and larger volumes of private finance mobilized. However, available OECD data show insufficient use of guarantees for development purposes, extreme disproportions in mobilized finance among providers (both bilateral and multilateral), beneficiary countries and sectors and a high portfolio heterogeneity. The prospects of the distribution of guarantees will be influenced by new statistical reporting principles and a number of powerful economic and noneconomic factors, such as: 1) a lack of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals; 2) worsening budgetary constraints in developed countries, hindering the increase in official development assistance; 3) intensifying geopolitical rivalries. A possible increase in the provision of development guarantees can only be welcomed. However, if it is accompanied by a reduction in funding for traditional aid programs affecting the fundamental factors of commercial and non-commercial risks, as well as prioritization of less vulnerable but more strategically important countries, the positive effect will fall short of expectations.
Keywords: guarantees, political risk insurance, development finance, official development assistance, statistical reporting, international financial institutions, private sector
JEL: F21, F35, F52, F53
Funding: This research was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23-28-01060, https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-28-01060/.
For citation: Bartenev V.I. (2025). Guarantee Instruments in International Development Finance: Factors, Dynamics, and Prospects. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 27–44 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-27-44.
© Bartenev V.I., 2025
I.I. Yakovleva
Restrictions on Cross-border Capital Flows: Evolution of the IMF’s Position and Key Trends, p. 45-61
Abstract
The article describes the evolution of the International Monetary Fund’s position regarding restrictions on cross-border capital flows. The prerequisites of transition from one stage of evolution to another are discussed. Specific attention is paid to the adjustments of the IMF’s position after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. There has been a revision of perceptions about the benefits and risks of moving towards a more open capital account. Particular attention is paid to the period after 2012, when the institutional approach to capital controls was proposed. Since then, it has defined the IMF's position with some additions and adjustments. Taking into account this institutional view, the experience of individual countries’ imposition of cross-border capital flow restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic is examined. Moreover, using data from AREAER reports and de jure capital mobility indices, this paper attempts to identify the main trends in capital account restrictions for different groups of countries depending on their income levels and initial capital mobility. Conclusions are drawn about the possible reasons for changes in the IMF’s stance, as well as on the specifics of capital mobility faced by particular groups of countries. This is particularly relevant for Russia due to the capital controls introduced in 2022.
Keywords: capital controls, cross-border capital flows, institutional view, institutional approach, International Monetary Fund, capital inflow, capital outflow, liberalization
JEL: B27, F02, F32, F38
Funding: The article was prepared as part of the research project under the state assignment of RANEPA.
For citation: Yakovleva I.I. (2025). Restrictions on Cross-border Capital Flows: Evolution of the IMF’s Position and Key Trends. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 45–61 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-45-61.
© Yakovleva I.I., 2025
A.I. Votinov, Ju.A. Polshchikova, K.A. Nersisyan
Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times, p. 62-73
Abstract
Recent trends in the global world (the financial and coronavirus crises, global geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) put macroeconomic modeling in front of the need to consider crisis phenomena in models. In this paper we try to answer the question of what has changed in macroeconomic modeling due to the coronavirus crisis and other shocks that the global economy has faced recently. Based on the literature review, the current directions in the implementation of the main classes of macroeconomic models in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods are examined. First, approaches to forecasting in crisis conditions are analyzed. Then the emphasis is shifted to nowcasting and projections for short periods of time. Mathematical chaos theory is also considered in the context of forecasting under specific and large shocks. We also discuss general equilibrium models and the relevance of incorporating heterogeneity and epidemiologic concepts into the structure of such models. Finally, we point out to a multiscenario approach to analyzing fiscal sustainability through models in the context of the unprecedented increase of government burdens faced by many countries during crisis.
Keywords: macroeconomic modeling, coronavirus crisis, COVID-19, forecasting, projections, dynamic and static general equilibrium models, public debt sustainability analysis
JEL: E10
For citation: Votinov A.I., Polshchikova Ju.A., Nersisyan K.A. (2025). Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 62–73 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-62-73.
© Votinov A.I., Polshchikova Ju.A., Nersisyan K.A., 2025
I.K. Klioutchnikov, T.V. Saakyan
Economic Foundations of Rationality and Efficiency of State Subsidies to Business Entities, p. 74-91
Abstract
Subject. Rationality and efficiency of budgeting state subsidies to business entities. Objectives. To develop a science-based system for assessing the rationality and effectiveness of the process of state subsidization of business entities. Results. The interrelation of rationality and efficiency of the process of budgeting subsidies to business entities is substantiated. Determination of the logic of conceptual justifications of rationality of subsidies budgeting and efficiency of their provision as a single process allowed to open a new research space for modeling and studying the effectiveness of the impact of subsidies both on business entities and on the budget. The schemes of interaction between the state and commercial organizations are analyzed. A modification of ideas about the principles of rationality and efficiency of neoclassical economic theory is proposed. Conclusions. Scientific views on the rationality and efficiency of subsidy budgeting are changing in the process of theory development, economic transformations and clarification of development goals. Model constructions of subsidies movement after their provision from the budget are developed, which will allow us to move to the assessment of the rationality and efficiency of the impact of subsidies on commercial organizations.
Keywords: subsidies, rationality, effectiveness, budgeting, financial assistance
JEL: H21, H25
For citation: Klioutchnikov I.K., Saakyan T.V. (2025). Economic Foundations of Rationality and Efficiency of State Subsidies to Business Entities. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 74–91 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-74-91.
© Klioutchnikov I.K., Saakyan T.V., 2025
B.I. Alekhin
Ruble Debt Burden, p. 92-107
Abstract
The burden of ruble debt is measured by a ratio between the amount of rubles that Russians borrowed from their banks and their monetary income. Why ruble debt only? The share of foreign currency credit to Russian households has been declining quite steadily and remained insignificant in recent years. Even in the peak of 2010 it fluctuated around 10%. The purpose of this study is to analyze the size, dynamics and determinants of debt burden. To achieve this purpose, a panel for 81 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2022 was assembled on the basis of official statistics. All variables proved to be non-stationary which allowed to use panel dynamic least squares (DOLS) to estimate the parameters of the cointegrating equation. The estimates proved the existence of long-term, equilibrium relationship between debt burden and explanatory variables. To support our empirical search for drivers of debt burden we relied on the theories of life-cycle, liquidity constraints and behavioral finance. The first two proved to be useful, while the role of behavioral finance remained unclear as it was impossible to operationalize such a murky concept as financial literacy. In accordance with the life-cycle theory, the share of working-age population in the region’s entire population proved to be the main driver of debt burden growth. We also found out that debt burden is positively related to housing prices and liquidity constraints measured by the income required to get the bank loan approved. Finally, the cycle of economic activity also adds to the dynamics of debt burden with the latter increasing in bad times. All these variables are cointegrating partners of debt burden in Russia.
Keywords: mortgage and consumer loans, debt burden, cointegration, regions, Russia
JEL: G51, G21, C58
For citation: Alekhin B.I. (2025). Ruble Debt Burden. Financial Journal, 17 (1), 92–107 (in Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-92-107.
© Alekhin B.I., 2025
Yu.G. Lavrikova, E.O. Wegner-Kozlova, O.N. Buchinskaia
Organizational and Economic Barriers to the Development of Sustainable
Finance (on the Example of Large Industrial Businesses in the Ural Region), p. 108-125
Abstract
Despite the fact that the green finance market in Russia is actively developing, its growth rates still lag behind foreign countries. In order to create incentives to include ESG agendas in the strategic plans of the industrial sector, as well as to adapt financial market participants to new types of risks associated with sustainable development, it is necessary to identify and solve a number of organizational and economic problems. In particular, it is necessary to determine barriers to the development of sustainable investment in ESG projects from the perspective of the real economy sector, which determines the relevance of the study. The purpose of the study was to identify the reasons for the low spread of ESG projects in the activities of the large industrial sector of the Ural region in order to adapt the implementation of the ESG agenda to the needs of enterprises and the national interests of the Russian Federation. The objectives of the study included identifying the attitude of large industrial enterprises in the Ural region to the ESG agenda in terms of corporate and legal issues and operational activities and attitudes to the climate and environmental agenda, as well as determining the readiness of large businesses to use green finance and to disclose information about non-financial reporting and risks. The methodological basis of the study was the results of a questionnaire survey of management personnel responsible for consolidating ESG policy at large industrial enterprises in the Ural region. The results are as follows. All the companies surveyed expressed concerns that disclosure of information in ESG reporting could be used by unfriendly countries for political purposes or by other entities as an instrument of unfair competition. At the same time, the respondents demonstrated significant attention to the negative environmental impact of production activities. In the matters of the climate agenda, respondents are currently guided by legislative requirements. Insufficient attention is also paid to ESG training of personnel. The findings can be useful for creating incentives to include the ESG agenda in the strategic plans of the industrial sector, as well as for adapting green finance market players to new types of risks associated with sustainable development.
Keywords: ESG agenda, ESG reporting, green finance, disclosure, green transition challenges
JEL: D22, G32, L53
For citation: Lavrikova Yu.G., Wegner-Kozlova E.O., Buchinskaia O.N. (2025). Organizational and Economic Barriers to the Development of Sustainable Finance (on the Example of Large Industrial Businesses in the Ural Region). Financial Journal, 17 (1), 108–125 (in Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-108-125.
© Lavrikova Yu.G., Wegner-Kozlova E.O., Buchinskaia O.N., 2025
