Financial Journal № 3(49) May-June 2019
Roman S. Leukhin
Short-Term Fiscal Projections Using Forecast Combination Approach, p. 9-21
In this paper the author compares a number of methods to forecast corporate income tax revenues in the next quarter: autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, linear regression, naïve forecast, and combination approaches. Results show that the increase of the time period for the next quarter forecast error calculation leads to the increase of errors for individual models and arithmetic mean, and the decrease for combination approaches which consider forecast errors in previous periods. Linear regression with the MOEX Russia Index as explanatory variable provides the lowest error for the next quarter forecast for 5- and 10-quarter periods. The forecast combination approach, what takes into account the forecast error in previous 4 quarters, provides the best result for a period of 15 quarters, what is explained by diversification of forecast errors. This method can be successfully used for corporate income tax revenue projections and possibly for other budget revenues.
Keywords: fiscal forecast, forecast combination, forecast accuracy, tax revenues, corporate income tax.
JEL: C22, C53, H20
For citation: Leukhin R.S. Short-Term Fiscal Projections Using Forecast Combination Approach. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 9–21 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-9-21
Mikhail V. Milchakov
The Features of Federal Support Allocation Among Russian Regions for National Projects Execution, p. 22-37
2019 marked the start of an active phase of national projects implementation in Russia. The author uses official quantitative data from open sources to examine the features of federal support allocation among Russian regions for national project execution. The methodology and legal framework of federal transfer allocation for national project accomplishment are analyzed. The research shows that in many aspects the regime of grant financing in national projects has a number of advantages and preferences in comparison with the “standard” schemes and approaches. The author proposes formalized approaches to assess the potential impact of federal financial support for national projects on the regional budgets. The article contains recommendations for implementation of wide-purpose grant for national projects funding based on their consolidation and suggestions for optimization of administrative procedures. The author concludes that the allocation of intergovernmental transfers for national projects among regions in general reflects the fiscal capacities of regions and meets the differentiation in budget costs among them. At the same time, some regions increased the revenue base on a larger scale due to the implementation of national projects. On the other hand, it is possible to determine a group of regions with the deficit of current federal aid and preconditions for additional support.
Keywords: intergovernmental fiscal relations, intergovernmental transfers, national projects, general grants, block grants, federal budget, budgets of Russian regions.
JEL: H61, H72, H77, R58
For citation: Milchakov M.V. The Features of Federal Support Allocation Among Russian Regions for National Projects Execution. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 22–37 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-22-37
Marina Yu. Malkina, Anton O. Ovcharov
Financial Stress Index as a Generalized Indicator of Financial Instability, p. 38-54
The paper provides an overview of the methods and models for quantitative evaluation of the financial instability of economic systems. The authors identify the indicators of financial instability and show their connection with various stress tests, assessing the vulnerability of economic systems to various shocks. The main results of Russian and foreign studies devoted to the development of early warning systems of financial instability, including various leading indicators of currency, debt and banking crises, are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the experience of building an aggregated financial stress index (FSI) and its use as a generalized indicator of financial instability of economic systems. Using the vector model for error correction, the authors construct cointegration equations for three main variables demonstrating a quick response to external shocks: oil price, ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, and the RTS index. The application of the principal component analysis allowed the authors to aggregate adequately the information contained in these variables. Based on the moving average and standard deviation of the principal components’ growth rates, the authors propose a new financial stress index. In addition, with the help of this index the authors obtained estimates of the level of financial stress in the Russian economy from January 2000 up to February 2019 and revealed differences in the nature of financial stress during the 2008–2009 and 2014–2016 crisis periods.
Keywords: financial instability, early warning indicators system, modeling, assessment, financial stress index.
JEL: G01, C58, E44
For citation: Malkina M.Yu., Ovcharov A.O. Financial Stress Index as a Generalized Indicator of Financial Instability. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 38–54 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-38-54
Yulia S. Evlakhova
The Risks of Russian Banks Before and After Recognition of Being Systemically Important Financial Institutions, p. 55-63
After reviewing of the concept of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and identifying such global and national companies, the authors present the first investigation of Russian systemically important banks’ behavior before and after the publication of the list of systemically important financial institutions. The authors’ method is based on assessment of operational risks during two periods (Jan 1, 2013 — Jan 1, 2015 and Jan 1, 2016 — Jan 1, 2018). The analysis results show that the level of Russian banks’ risks decreased after the publication of the list of systemically important financial institutions, and thus Russian systemically important banks’ behavior did not coincide with the behavior of global and foreign institutions. The authors explain this discrepancy with the fact that the macroeconomic situation affected banking risks more than the publication of the list of systemically important financial institutions did. The authors conclude with a suggestion to continue the investigation of Russian systemically important banks’ behavior by expanding the risk types. These and other new results would influence the regulatory regime for systemically important financial institutions.
Keywords: systemically important banks, moral hazard, operational risks, state financial support, regulation.
JEL: G21, G28
For citation: Evlakhova Yu.S. The Risks of Russian Banks Before and After Recognition of Being Systemically Important Financial Institutions. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 55-63 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-55-63
Sergei V. Yakunin
Domination of Banks With State Participation in Russia: Current Trends, p. 64-74
The article discusses a number of current problems faced by banks as participants of the financial market during their operation. These problems are analyzed in the context of tasks of improving the efficiency of the Russian economy, taking into account the features of the functioning and further development of the financial market. In this regard, the author examines the reasons underlying the dominance of banks with state participation, and their consequences. The reasons for the increase in their dominance were caused by the preferences received by banks with state participation in the period of financial crises. Further tightening of requirements for financial market participants and ongoing financial support for the largest banks has created a new market structure. The author assumes that the severe restrictions imposed in the EAEU countries on the presence of companies from Russia in their financial markets are due to the fact that Russian credit organizations significantly exceed the national credit organizations of the EAEU countries in terms of assets. The reasons for the symbiosis of the largest insurance companies and banks, and its results are named. The author concludes that the entry of banks to the food and non-food retail market gives the state a unique lever of consumer market management through banks with state participation. The results obtained can be used to create a financial services marketplace. In addition, they can help the mega-regulator develop laws aimed at increasing the banks’ efficiency in the economy.
Keywords: banks, financial market, financial intermediary, insurance, competition, retail.
JEL: G14, G18
For citation: Yakunin S.V. Domination of Banks With State Participation in Russia: Current Trends. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 64–74 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-64-74
Elena A. Fedorova, Aleksei E. Nikolaev, Yuliya S. Shirokova, Fedor Yu. Fedorov
Export and Import Activities of Russian Companies With FDI in the Context of Sanctions, p. 75-90
This research evaluates the efficiency of exporting and importing companies with FDI. In their study, the authors set up a hypothesis that companies with export and import activities are the most efficient. They are followed by only importing companies and then by companies that only export; the least efficient are fully domestically-owned firms which do not participate in international trade. Another hypothesis is dedicated to the assessment of influence of imposed sanctions on importing companies’ productivity. As a research methodology, the return on assets (ROA) index for companies with FDI in comparison with national enterprises is used to test the first hypothesis. Moreover, for the same purpose the authors apply the classic approach of the DEA method as well as DEA with the regard for spillover effects from FDI. The second hypothesis is examined with the help of the Malmquist index for importing and exporting firms. The empirical database consists of approximately 170,000 records of more than 33,000 Russian enterprises, taking into account to which of the six major sectors of the Russian economy they belong. As a result of the study, the authors conclude that companies with FDI are characterized with a higher level of efficiency compared to companies without foreign capital. Furthermore, international companies are more efficient than enterprises which do not take part in international trade. Concerning the second hypothesis, the authors establish that the sanctions have a negative impact on importing companies’ efficiency, which is especially evident in comparison with growing productivity of exporting firms. This trend could be explained by decreasing FDI inflows into the country and also import restrictions by imposed sanctions, which adversely affect importing companies’ efficiency.
Keywords: import, export, companies with FDI, technical efficiency, sanctions, DEA, Malmquist index.
JEL: E22, F21
For citation: Fedorova E.A., Nikolaev E.A., Shirokova Yu.S., Fedorov F.Yu. Export and Import Activities of Russian Companies With FDI in the Context of Sanctions. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 75–90 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-75-90
Tatyana G. Arbatskaya
Problems in Accounting of Bad Debts Reserve of Public Sector Organizations, p. 91-105
The article describes the main directions of reforming the accounting of accounts receivable and allowance for doubtful accounts of public sector organizations. It also compares the requirements for accounting of accounts receivable and allowance for doubtful accounts in organizations of the private sector of the economy and in public sector organizations, as well as taxation. The author's proposals are aimed at further improvement of the methodology and methods of accounting in the public sector. The author suggests that the list of criteria for doubtful accounts recognition be expanded with a criterion for the absence of receivables security with guarantees provided by law or by contract. In addition, the author sets forth a supplementation of the chart of accounts with a synthetic account for accounting of bad debts reserve and correspondence of accounts for forming and using bad debt reserve and allowance for doubtful accounts. According to the author, the improvements proposed would allow one to take into account receivables and financial results of a given organization in the public administration sector in accounting and financial statements in accordance with the federal standard requirements.
Keywords: public sector organizations, budget revenue, accounts receivable, allowance, allowance for doubtful accounts.
JEL: М41, М48
For citation: Arbatskaya T.G. Problems in Accounting of Bad Debts Reserve of Public Sector Organization. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 91–105 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-91-105
Anna V. Agapova, Irina A. Gokinaeva, Alina A. Meleshkina
“Customs Audit” Direction: Implementation for the Purpose of Electronic Customs Development, p. 106-116
Development of electronic customs is currently a relevant area of work for both the Eurasian Economic Commission and the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of Russia. It relates to the introduction of a “single window” mechanism, one of the blocks of which is electronic customs. The need of customs audit implementation in the work of customs services in the EAEU countries emphasizes its development being part of the block of electronic customs. However, the introduction of customs audit is restrained by uncertainty in its understanding. The article analyses the existing customs audit application practice for customs control of goods abroad. It is determined that in all researched countries customs audit is understood as a form of customs control. In the study, the authors develop possible approaches to implementation of customs audit in the activities of the Russian Federal Customs Service, namely a form of customs control (based on the experience of foreign countries), a subject type of business activity, and a special type of state control. Possible negative consequences of customs audit introduction in each case are analyzed. In addition, the authors prove that introducing a new form of customs control (customs audit) would be inexpedient. The results of the experiment on customs audit application conducted by the FCS of Russia are also analyzed in the article. The analysis reveals a lack of considerable positive results confirming the validity of introduction of customs audit as a business activity. The authors establish that the best decision at the moment would be the creation of a separate public authority engaged in customs audit. This would allow the workload of customs authorities in goods post-clearance control to be redistributed, and would ensure a wide use of authentic audit reports made by officials in categorizing the participants of foreign trade activities and granting them various simplifications and preferences. It would also expand the necessary cooperation between authorities and participants of foreign trade activities, realizing the principles of the single window system, and could eventually help replace the desk customs inspection.
Keywords: customs control, post-clearance audit, PCA, customs audit, “single window” mechanism, single window, post-clearance customs control, electronic customs.
JEL: F13, F14, F53
For citation: Agapova A.V., Gokinaeva I.A., Meleshkina A.A. “Customs Audit” Direction: Implementation for the Purpose of Electronic Customs Development. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 106–116 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-106-116
Vitalii A. Fedosov, Valeriya V. Bogatchenko
Financial Mechanism of Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation, p. 117-127
Participatory budgeting is one of the most actively developing forms of public participation in the budget process. Participatory budgeting practices implemented in the Russian Federation differ significantly from each other, which suggests that it is necessary to study further their financial mechanism. The authors has summarized the features of the financial mechanism in the implementation of various practices of participatory budgeting, and has highlighted and described the elements related to the following: implementation of participatory budgeting projects; accompanying participatory budgeting practices; and maintenance of objects created as a result of participatory budgeting practices implementation. The problems that are arising in the process of financing various participatory budgeting practices are systematized, and possible ways of solving them are proposed.
Keywords: participatory budgeting, budget, financial mechanism, co-financing, subsidy.
JEL: H72, R50
For citation: Fedosov V.A., Bogatchenko V.V. Financial Mechanism of Participatory Budgeting in the Russian Federation. Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2019, no. 3, pp. 117–127 (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-3-117-127