Financial Journal Vol.14 No.2 2022
Approaches to the Modeling and Use of a Long-term Budget Projection at the Regional Level, p. 8-25
In compliance with the requirements of the budget legislation the constituent entities of the Russian Federation work out and adopt long-term budget forecasts. The major drawbacks of the current regional forecasts are inadequate methodology of calculating indicators (revenues, expenditures, deficit, debt) and an indistinct role of forecasting in the budgeting process. The article gives specific recommendations on assessing the parameters of revenues and expenditures of the regional budget for a long term horizon. The author focuses on the relationship of the long-term budget forecasts with the other documents of strategic planning (notably, forecasts of socio-economic development). The author suggests various formulas for calculating revenues and expenditures of regional budgets in the long term, as well as options for detailed elaboration of these parameters depending on the availability of background information and the peculiar features of the region. The article also formulates recommendations on the formalized approaches to assess the long-term consequences of the region’s budget policy, as well as to quantify external challenges on a long-term budget forecast model. Approbation of the proposed approaches was carried out on the example of a simulation model based on the data of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug.
Keywords: long-term budget projection, regional budget policy, revenues and expenditures, balance of the regional budget
Funding: the article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Barbashova N.E. Approaches to the Modeling and Use of a Long-term Budget Projection at the Regional Level. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 8–25 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-2-8-25.
© Barbashova N.E., 2022
Attraction of Borrowed Resources to the Budgetary System. Evolution of Scientific Views
and Features of Practical Implementation, p. 26-42
The paper carries systematization of a step-by-step evolutionary change in theoretical views on debt financing of public expenditures. A comprehensive analysis of the most important characteristics of the state debt of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation since 2006 has been carried out. Seven situations of varying degree of emergency calling for government support have been identified. These periods are determined by identifying the prerequisites for the emergence, quantitative characteristics, structural deformations of debt and instruments of state regulation. Based on the results of the analysis, it was concluded that the attraction of borrowed budget resources to the regions of the Russian Federation was mainly a forced and spontaneous process, subject to time changes and carried out mainly to make up for the lack of the region’s own budget revenues. The research proves that attracting budgetary resources to the region requires a systematic approach and consideration of two factors: how the region’s own budgetary potential affects the borrowed budgetary resources and how they in turn can affect the region’s own budgetary capacity of current and / or future periods. There are scenarios about impact of borrowed budgetary resources on the territory's own budgetary capacity.
Keywords: public debt, budgetary capacity, budget system, attraction of resources, borrowed resources, economic theory, credit
Funding: The article was prepared in accordance with the state assignment for the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the topic of research work FMGZ-2022-0012 “Factors and methods of sustainable socio-economic development of territorial systems in the changing conditions of the external and internal environment”.
For citation: Pechenskaya-Polishchuk M.A. Attraction of Borrowed Resources to the Budgetary System.
Evolution of Scientific Views and Features of Practical Implementation. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 26–42 (In Russ.).
© Pechenskaya-Polishchuk M.A., 2022
K.V. Shvandar, L.I. Khomyakova
Regional Payment Systems of Asia, Africa, Latin America as a Tool for Regional
Integration. Prospects for the Eurasian Economic Union, p. 43-54
The article considers the mutual payment systems of regional associations in Asia, Africa and Latin America in line with the global trend to reduce the share of the US dollar in settlements among countries belonging to trade, regional or integration blocs. We took for the research the Regional Payment System SML (Sistema de Pagamentos em Moeda Local) of the MERCOSUR countries, the Regional Mutual Settlement System SUCRE (Sistema Único de Compensación Regional) of the ALBA countries, the Regional Clearing and Settlement System REPSS (Regional Payment and Settlement System) of the COMESA, Settlement system of the Asian Clearing Union. It reveals features of these mutual payment systems, analyzes their contribution to the servicing of mutual trade turnover (noted such a feature of existing systems as their centric organization). The role of these systems in stimulating the use of national currencies by economic entities has been determined. It is indicated that the dedollarisation processes are closely related to the development of cross-border payments and the achievement of certain agreements on the development of a common payment space among countries of the same region that have economic ties, first of all active mutual trade. Based on the model and data on mutual trade turnover and the currency structure of settlements of the Eurasian Economic Union countries given Latin American, African and Asian experience, it forecasts an increase in the share of their national currencies in the servicing of mutual trade in goods and services.
Keywords: payments, cross-border settlements, common payment space, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), dedollarisation, national currencies
JEL: E42, G15, G23
For citation: Shvandar K.V., Khomyakova L.I. Regional Payment Systems of Asia, Africa, Latin America as a Tool for Regional Integration. Prospects for the Eurasian Economic Union. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 43–54.
© Shvandar K.V., Khomyakova L.I., 2022
The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Tax Receipts from Self-Employed Citizens
in the Russian Federation, p. 55-72
The coronavirus pandemic has affected all the economies throughout the world, including tax revenues from economic entities. The purpose of this research was to study the development of self-employment in Russia and foreign countries during the spread of a new coronavirus infection and to assess tax revenues from the self-employed to the budget system of the Russian Federation during this period. Within the framework of this research, various approaches to the status of a self-employed person are considered. It has been established that there is currently no single approach to interpreting selfemployment either in the scientific community or in the explanations of various government agencies. Based on statistics from the International Labour Organization, it was found that the scope of selfemployment in the world in connection with the coronavirus pandemic has not changed significantly, and in some countries has even increased, due to the search for additional sources of income by the self-employed, especially in low-income countries (Africa, India). The impact of the pandemic on the income level of the self-employed, the development of certain types of activities in this segment of employment, the turnover of payments made in favor of persons of liberal professions has been established. Despite the fact that the activities of the self-employed in Russia have suffered less from the coronavirus pandemic (unlike foreign countries), the contribution to the budget system of our country from this segment of employment falls below the most pessimistic forecasts. It is concluded that the self-employment segment has a powerful potential for development and is able to provide considerable tax revenues to the budget system of Russia.
Keywords: self-employment, self-employed, coronavirus, pandemic, taxation, taxation of the selfemployed, tax on professional income, development of self-employment
JEL: Е62, Н25, Н26, H39
For citation: Izmailova M.O. The Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Tax Receipts from Self-Employed Citizens in the Russian Federation. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 55–72 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-2-55-72.
© Izmailova M.O., 2022
V.V. Olkhovik, O.I. Lyutova, E. Juchnevicius
Economic Growth Models and FDI in the CIS Countries During the Period of Digitalization, p. 73-90
This article explores the interrelation between economic growth and foreign direct investments (FDI) in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in 1993–2019. The research focuses on the impact of new FDI inflows per capita, as well as the influence of accumulated foreign capital (FDI stock per capita) on GDP growth per capita. This article has aimed to find the causal link between GDP growth and FDI inflows, as well as between GDP growth and FDI stock per capita in the CIS countries. The research methods include: empirical and statistical research, synthesis of practical and theoretical matters, methods of mathematical modelling. Discussion. FDI in the CIS countries are often determined by market size and market growth potential, which ensure a favourable business environment for foreign investors. Data obtained during the analysis suggest that the CIS countries mainly attract market-oriented FDI, which is consistent with the findings of the authors. Thus, the accumulated foreign capital stock has positive impact on economic growth in the CIS countries. Results. Foreign direct investments for economic growth act through such factors as gross domestic product, interest rate, average wages, exchange rate, consumer price index, political stability. The coronavirus pandemic factor is assessed by the authors as negatively affecting the investment attractiveness of countries; the use of digital technologies in handling FDI, according to the authors, is debatable issue.
Keywords: economic growth models, foreign direct investments (FDI), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, digitalization, trade integration, global integration, financial capital
JEL: С23, E27, F43, F47
For citation: Olkhovik V.V., Lyutova O.I., Juchnevicius E. Economic Growth Models and FDI in the CIS Countries During the Period of Digitalization. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 73–90. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-2-73-90.
© Olkhovik V.V., Lyutova O.I., Juchnevicius E., 2022
A.Yu. Nevela, V.A. Lapshin
Model Risk and Basic Approaches to its Estimation on Example of Market Risk Models, p. 91-112
Model risk is currently a topic of great interest both to the academic community and to the financial industry; however, there is not yet any generally accepted approach to measuring it as of now. We give a review of basic model risk definitions and different indicators and approaches to model risk estimation and calculation within a common setting. The subject of this work is model risk itself that arises while using models to estimate financial risk and its quantitative indicators. The study is of particular relevance to financial institutions which for a long time have been actively applying different risk models. Since there is no generally accepted way to do so, choosing the exact approach becomes an important step in modelling. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate different approaches to model risk estimation on the same example of estimating the model risk of Value-at-Risk models and compare them within one setting. Methods used: analysis of time series, theoretical distribution parameters estimation. The result of the work is a list of methods and approaches for estimating and calculating model risk with the examples of applying these methods to a real risk-management task with appropriate interpretation. This work can be useful for researchers and risk managers of financial institutions.
Keywords: model risk, method of model risk estimation, conservativeness, accuracy and efficiency of estimations, Value-at-Risk, market risk
JEL: G32, C53
For citation: Nevela A.Yu., Lapshin V.A. Model Risk and Basic Approaches to its Estimation on Example of Market Risk Models. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 91–112 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-2-91-112.
© Nevela A.Yu., Lapshin V.A., 2022
Disclosure by Venture Capital Funds Formed Under Investment Partnership Agreement, p. 113-129
Russia’s private equity and venture capital industry is in the early stages of development. In 2011 the Federal Law on Investment Partnership (335-FZ) was enacted. It brought the best international practices of collective investments into the Russian legal system by making it possible to create venture capital funds through investment partnership. This particular type of funds is the closest in substance to the most popular legal form of globally known venture capital funds which is a limited liability partnership. Significant progress has been made so far in reforming the Russian system of accounting and financial reporting under the IFRS. However, the existing regulations have not been amended to (capture) incorporate accounting and reporting of financial investments, and proper templates for disclosure and reporting by investment partnership funds have not been worked out. The aim of the article is to develop suggestions and recommendations to enhance domestic model of information disclosure by venture capital funds formed under investment partnership agreements. Researching the international practices of disclosure by venture capital funds created as limited liability partnerships allowed to devise financial reporting templates that can be used by domestic venture capital funds formed under investment partnership agreements. These templates proposed in this piece of research can serve as the basis for future industry standards of financial accounting in Russia.
Keywords: venture capital funds, investment entities, financial reporting, IFRS, fair value
JEL: M41, O30, O31, G11
For citation: Makushina E.Yu. Disclosure by Venture Capital Funds Formed Under Investment Partnership Agreement. Financial Journal, 2022, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 113–129 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-2-113-129.
© Makushina E.Yu., 2022