Financial Journal Vol.15 No.5 2023
A.I. Votinov, V.A. Gribova, S.S. Lazaryan
Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model, p. 8-26
This paper attempts to assess the impact of public investment within the framework of a simple DSGE model calibrated on Russian data. To this end, three versions of the DSGE model were constructed. The first model, referred to as the baseline model, assumes efficient allocation of public investment. The second model considers inefficient use of public investment when it is not fully converted into capital. The third model examines crowding out of private investment by public investment. The primary focus of this paper is to analyze the effects of public investment shock on various components of the economy. Two distinct effects are identified with regard to investment. The first effect relates to a short-term increase in demand due to an increase in investment activity. The size of this effect is strongly influenced by the crowding-out phenomenon, in particular by the ability of the economy to absorb investment effectively. The second effect is a reduction in marginal costs in the medium to long run, which facilitates economic growth even at the expense of increased private investment. This effect depends primarily on the efficiency of transformation of public investment into capital. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of the results to parameterization, including the degree of economic openness. The findings of the study explain the transmission mechanism of public investment, including the factors affecting its efficiency. It is important to note that the main objective of the study was to investigate the transmission mechanism and its determinants, while the next stage of the research is expected to include a comprehensive assessment of the parameters using Russian data.
Keywords: public investment, DSGE models, crowding-out effect, investment efficiency, depreciation rate, income ratio, rate of substitution
JEL: E22, E62, H54, R53
Funding: The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 21-18-00482, https://rscf.ru/project/21-18-00482/
For citation: Votinov A.I., Gribova V.A., Lazaryan S.S. (2023). Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 8–26 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-8-26
© Votinov A.I., Gribova V.A., Lazaryan S.S., 2023
Legal Framework for Central Bank Digital Currencies and the Digital Ruble, p. 27-44
The introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) requires an appropriate legal framework. Its absence creates serious legal and reputational risks that may undermine citizens' confidence in the new digital form of national currency. The purpose of this article is to explore the approaches to the formation of the legal basis for the functioning of CBDCs based on the analysis of foreign experience and Russian legislation. The article highlights the legal features of CBDCs that allow to distinguish them from other state digital financial instruments. The author proposes a legal taxonomy of retail CBDCs, revealing the legal consequences of the choice of CBDC design. Special attention is paid to the problem of legal balance between user privacy and security. The article investigates legal approaches to the regulation of CBDC of foreign countries, primarily China. The author analyses the legislation on the digital ruble, which showed the insufficiency of legal guarantees to protect the rights of citizens — users of the digital ruble platform, which may negatively affect public confidence in the digital ruble.
Keywords: central bank digital currency (CBDC), legal taxonomy, retail CBDCs, programmable CBDCs, digital ruble, digital yuan
JEL: G21, G28
Funding: This research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 21-511-93004 КАОН “Rule of Law in the Digital Economy in China and Russia: Current State, Challenges and
For citation: Sannikova L.V. (2023). Legal Framework for Central Bank Digital Currencies and the Digital Ruble. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 27–44 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-27-44
© Sannikova L.V., 2023
Improvement of Treasury Control Tools as a Measure to Increase the Efficiency of Budget Expenditures, p. 45-60
The article is devoted to the issues related to the need to improve the efficiency of budget funds. The author proposes to supplement the "classical" criteria of budget funds usage efficiency with the criterion of legality. The study summarizes and analyzes the results of control activities of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation and the Federal Treasury. In view of the significant number of violations detected by the state financial control bodies, the author concludes that it is necessary to improve the treasury control tools, such as treasury service, treasury support, budget monitoring and preliminary control in the field of procurement. The author also considers approaches to improving the operational efficiency of the use of budgetary funds. The empirical basis of the study are the results of the federal budget execution for the past five years, as well as indicators of the federal budget receivables. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of centralized budget accounting.
Keywords: state financial control, treasury control, treasury service, treasury support, centralized budget accounting
JEL: G32, H12, M15, M38, O32
For citation: Lukashov A.I. (2023). Improvement of Treasury Control Tools as a Measure to Increase the Efficiency of Budget Expenditures. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 45–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-45-60
© Lukashov A.I., 2023
E.N. Timushev, V.A. Yagovkina
Reserve Funds in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Efficiency Assessment, p. 61-78
The article considers the main characteristics of the Russian Federation subjects’ reserve funds analyzes the factors of their formation and assesses their effectiveness through the lens of the regions’ countercyclical fiscal policy. In theory, reserve funds serve not only as a source of additional budgetary funds, but also as an instrument of anti-crisis policy and financial stability. In practice, the reserve funds of Russian regions are believed not to fulfill the designated tasks, although the number of relevant studies is extremely limited. The latter determines the relevance of this study. The authors establish that the regional reserve fund of the subject as a public-law entity was established only in about half of the Russian regions and in many respects their creation coincided with the recovery growth after the crisis of 2009–2010. The theoretical provisions are also consistent with the fact that on average the reserve fund is owned by the entities whose economy is more dependent on the mining industry, has greater fiscal capacity, is less subsidized and has a lower level of debt. At the same time, greater fiscal capacity or debt sustainability can hardly be considered as factors in the creation of reserve funds. A number of models are constructed to assess the effectiveness of reserve funds of Russian regions from the point of view of countercyclical fiscal policy. It is concluded that reserve funds in their current form are ineffective for smoothing regional expenditures and maintaining overall fiscal stability. Nevertheless, many questions remain in this topic, including alternative model specifications and evaluation techniques. Based on the results obtained, the directions for further research are formulated.
Keywords: countercyclical fiscal policy, financial stability, intergovernmental fiscal relations, regional legislation, interaction variable, dummy variable, reserve funds
JEL: H61, H72, H77
Funding: the manuscript is based on the results of research carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment.
For citation: Timushev E.N., Yagovkina V.A. (2023). Reserve Funds in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Efficiency Assessment. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 61–78 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-61-78
© Timushev E.N., Yagovkina V.A., 2023
V.V. Klimanov, A.A. Mikhaylova, Z.I. Egorsheva
Moscow Budget Policy: Opportunities for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality, p. 79-93
At present in Russia there is a need to improve the quality of budget policy as the most important element of state policy, and Moscow is undoubtedly the leading region for its implementation. The purpose of the study is to determine whether Moscow's budget policy can respond to the challenges of the new reality through the instrument of state programs. To achieve this goal, the article considers the retrospective of Moscow budget execution in terms of expenditures, paying special attention to the program structure of expenditures. With the help of statistical and analytical methods the authors analyze the dynamics of budget expenditures distribution within the framework of Moscow state programs, and examine the approved and executed budgets and the percentage of deviation of the executed expenditures from the initially approved ones by subprograms. It is concluded that the Moscow budget is quite adaptive. The dynamics of budget expenditures shows that the distribution of budget allocations has been adjusted due to the need of the megapolis to respond to various challenges. If earlier such challenges included the need to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, now it is a tense foreign policy situation and sanctions from unfriendly states.
Keywords: Moscow budget policy, megapolis finances, financial sustainability, state programs and projects
JEL: H74, H77, Q58, R51
Funding: The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation. Project No. 22-28-20117 «Megapolis Budget Policy as a Tool for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality». https://rscf.ru/project/22-28-20117/
For citation: Klimanov V.V., Mikhaylova A.A., Egorsheva Z.I. (2023). Moscow Budget Policy: Opportunities for Responding to the Challenges of the New Reality. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 79–93 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-79-93
© Klimanov V.V., Mikhaylova A.A., Egorsheva Z.I., 2023
Assessing the Margin Requirements Impact on the Russian Futures Market Liquidity, p. 94-116
The implementation of a margin system in derivatives markets has a positive effect on market liquidity and market pricing efficiency. At the same time, portfolio diversification and hedging are not fully taken into account when assessing margin requirements. Therefore, in order to comply with regulatory requirements, the exchange sets excessive margins. IAs Charoula Daskalaki and George Skiadopoulos have shown, overestimation of margin requirements reduces the positive effect of the existence of a margin system. However, quantification of this observation has not been presented in studies before. This paper quantifies the dependence of market liquidity on the level of margin. The study is conducted on data from futures contracts for 19 underlying assets traded on the Moscow Exchange between 2014 and 2021, using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous factors (ARMAX). The stability of the obtained results is determined by comparing different model specifications with different sliding window sizes. The analysis not only confirmed the fact that margin requirements, which protect the exchange's capital, reduce the positive effect of implementing a margin system but also allowed to evaluate it quantitatively: a 1% increase in margin requirements in relative terms reduces trading volume from 2.5 to 7% and the volume of open positions from 0.2 to 0.9%, depending on the type of position and trader. The impact on trading volume is on average stable over time, and there are local trends and tipping points for the volume of open positions.
Keywords: derivatives, time series analysis, liquidity, margin requirements
JEL: C32, C51, G12
For citation: Potapov A.I. (2023). Assessing the Margin Requirements Impact on the Russian Futures Market Liquidity. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 94–116 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-94-116
© Potapov A.I., 2023
Evolution of the Bank-firm Relationship, p. 117-132
Increasing competition in all sectors of the economy, caused by the accelerated introduction of new technological advances in manufacturing processes, the creation of innovative products and the use of new business models, generates increased uncertainty in the development prospects of each market organization. The natural reaction of many commercial structures is to deepen specialization and competencies in their core activities. The purpose of the study is to identify the circumstances affecting interaction between a company and a bank in the new conditions. The article for the first time examines these relationships from the point of view of the need for each party to improve its own business, which objectively requires closer cooperation between them. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that strengthening collaboration between a firm and a bank in the field of credit and payment operations and management of related risks is based on pursuit of each party’s own goals and increases the value of each of them. Forms of cooperation between a company and a bank can be different, but the most effective for each organization seems to be a partnership form of relationship, allowing the participants of cooperation to receive the greatest benefits and, at the same time, to strengthen and reinforce their positions in the core activities of each party.
Keywords: specialization, competition, cooperation, mutual benefit, efficiency, firm, bank
JEL: G21, G32
For citation: Smirnov V.D. (2023). Evolution of the Bank-firm Relationship. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 117–132 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-117-132
© Smirnov V.D., 2023
M.E. Kosov, E.V. Golubtsova, E.S. Novikova
The Role of State Financial Regulation in Solving Key Problems of Russian Regions on the Example of the Far Eastern Federal District, p. 133-149
The relevance of this research is defined by the importance of the Far Eastern Federal District in the context of reorientation of Russia’s logistics and infrastructure from West to East. The aim of the paper is to test the hypothesis about the positive impact of the used measures of state financial regulation on the development of the Far Eastern Federal District in order to solve its key problems. The authors faced the task to analyze and develop essential measures of state financial regulation at the regional level. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of those measures taking into account the changing importance of the region in Russia’s trade turnover. The practical relevance consists in the possibility of using the results in the development of public financial policy in the region. In addition, the article considers key problems of the region, the solution of which will have a positive impact on the country’s economic growth and can be achieved through the government financial measures suggested by the authors. Such measures include increasing the capacity of the Far East sea ports, which means the simultaneous development of the Russian logistical infrastructure, primarily railway infrastructure, to organize uninterrupted delivery of goods to the ports of the region; changing the structure of the trade turnover with a shift towards the export of high-tech products; solving the demographic problems and increasing the scientific and technological potential of the Russian Far East. The results of this study can be used to analyze other Russian regions in order to increase the economic potential of the country as a whole.
Keywords: import substitution, state regulation, regional economics, tax incentives, preferential lending, subsidies, investments
For citation: Kosov M.E., Golubtsova E.V., Novikova E.S. (2023). The Role of State Financial Regulation in Solving Key Problems of Russian Regions on the Example of the Far Eastern Federal District. Financial Journal, 15 (5), 133–149 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-5-133-149
© Kosov M.E., Golubtsova E.V., Novikova E.S., 2023