A.L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, S.R. Borisova
Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity, p. 8-26
This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.
Keywords: taxes, budget revenues, CIT, budget risks, budget revenues by sector
JEL: E64, H24, H25, H72
For citation: Osmolovskaya-Suslina A.L., Borisova S.R. (2023). Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 8–26 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-8-26
© Osmolovskaya-Suslina A.L., Borisova S.R., 2023
Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures, p. 27-42
The article considers the problems of capital flight from Russia in current conditions and the related problems of financing budget expenditures. The difference between capital export and capital flight, which occurs in conditions of extremely high risks or unfavorable investment climate, is substantiated. The balance of payments of Russia in 2022 is analyzed, and it is substantiated that in the current situation capital flows are largely capital flight from political and economic risks. The author estimates the size of capital flight from Russia in 2022 (approximately $232 billion), and concludes that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings in modern conditions can be replaced by more flexible control measures. Further, the paper analyzes a set of complex problems of financing the federal budget expenditures of Russia in the current conditions. Three possible mechanisms of financing the budget deficit (or additional expenditures) are considered: at the expense of new public debt, at the expense of the National Welfare Fund and sale of state assets, as well as at the expense of new emergency taxes. It is concluded that attraction of new sources for government borrowing is practically impossible without a significant increase in interest expenditures. At the end of the paper, for the recovery of the Russian economy, there is a proposal to introduce a new flexible tax on the export of capital, which can create incentives for investment in the Russian economy and solve the problems of financing federal budget expenditures in modern conditions.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, capital flight, capital export, budget revenues, budget deficit, emergency tax
JEL: F21, G11, H50, H61, H68
For citation: Zhukov P.E. (2023). Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 27–42 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-27-42
© Zhukov P.E., 2023
A. Patalaha, M.A. Shchepeleva
Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability, p. 43-60
This research focuses on the determinants of banking crises. Despite all efforts to create systems of leading indicators, banking crises still occur, leading to negative consequences not only in the financial but also in the real sector of the economy. Our objective is to figure out how the characteristics of past banking crises, in particular the amount of liquidity support provided by the government, are related to the probability of subsequent banking crises. To accomplish this task, we use a classification tree methodology which we apply to a sample of 56 countries over the period 2000–2021. In addition to the characteristics of past crisis episodes, we add to the list of potential predictors of banking crises indicators related to the depth, structure and efficiency of the banking sector; institutional and macroeconomic indicators; and the index of macroprudential policy. To test the robustness of our results, we perform variable selection through Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that liquidity support during the past banking crisis is important for future crises. We demonstrate that excessive government support aimed at stabilizing the system during a crisis may affect future banking sector stability mainly by increasing the level of moral hazard in the financial system.
Keywords: classification tree, banking crisis, Bayesian model averaging, moral hazard
JEL: G01, G17, G28
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 23-18-00756).
For citation: Patalaha A., Shchepeleva M.A. (2023). Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 43–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-43-60
© Patalaha A., Shchepeleva M.A., 2023
A.A. Tsyganov, I.A. Bystronovskaya
Possible Organizational and Economic Schemes of Index Insurance in Russian Agriculture, p. 61-75
Agricultural risks, given climate change and the crisis of globalization, are increasingly considered as national security risks. In global practice, insurance has proven to be one of the most successful and sustainable ways to manage agricultural risks. In the Russian Federation, agricultural insurance is also state-supported, which emphasizes the importance of containment of agricultural sector hazards. However, the level of insurance penetration in Russian agriculture is insufficient. Indices in agricultural insurance, i.e. insurance in which insurance payments are made not on the basis of the assessment of damage to the insurance object, but on the basis of the behavior of a special index, are used in many countries around the world. The main idea of index insurance is that there is no need to establish the fact and calculate the amount of loss, which makes it especially demanded for those activities in the real sector of the economy where speed, transparency and simplicity of insurance payments are important, as well as the need to attract additional well-trained employees to carry out the insurance process and claims settlement. Reduced workload due to the absence of the need to calculate the amount of loss reduces the time required to process claims. The procedures of claim settlement in index insurance can be called the most simplified for the client and the least costly for the insurance company, but the advantages and positive features of index insurance do not end there. The authors have investigated and systematized the possibilities of index insurance, for which they also considered the successful experience of a country with similar socio-cultural codes, Mexico, in the field of agricultural index insurance. The article also suggests ways to overcome the difficulties of index insurance implementation in the Russian insurance realities. The positive features of the index insurance identified by the authors can make it a promising alternative to classical (traditional) insurance, including for the further development of agricultural insurance with state support.
Keywords: insurance theory, index insurance, agricultural insurance, insurance legislation
Funding: the article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
For citation: Tsyganov A.A., Bystronovskaya I.A. (2023). Possible Organizational and Economic Schemes of Index Insurance in Russian Agriculture. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 61–75 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-61-75
© Tsyganov A.A., Bystronovskaya I.A., 2023
P.K. Koval, A.V. Polbin
Estimation of Heterogenous Consumption and Income Parameters, p. 76-92
In modern economic literature, much attention is paid to estimates of the structural parameters of consumer choice and the process of income generation. Such estimations play an important role in determining the optimal insurance system, optimal monetary and fiscal policies, as well as in assessing the welfare of the population. In this paper, we estimate a set of parameters that determine the dynamics of household income and consumption in Russia. These parameters are heterogeneous at the household level; the paper uses the estimation method proposed in [Alan et al., 2018]. To estimate the parameters we use RLMS panel data for the period 2005–2019. The results indicate the presence of significant co-dependent heterogeneity of the parameters determining the dynamics of income and consumption. These results reflect the specifics of the consumer behavior of households in Russia. In particular, significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks indicates a large variability of consumption insurance mechanisms available to households. In addition, there is significant heterogeneity in the dispersion of income shocks, which is critical in the context of the discussion of heterogeneous insurance instruments against income shocks (e.g., access to financial assets), as households with higher variation in unanticipated income change value these instruments more. This study is the first to estimate the full distribution of heterogeneous parameters of consumption and income dynamics using Russian data. Estimates of heterogeneous parameters are important for constructing theoretical models of consumer choice and analyzing optimal social policy. In particular, high values of the level of parameter heterogeneity indicate that standard models with a representative agent are not suitable for optimal policy choices.
Keywords: heterogenous parameters, consumption, income, households, RLMS, structural model
JEL: D10, D12, E21
For citation: Koval P.K., Polbin A.V. (2023). Estimation of Heterogenous Consumption and Income Parameters. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 76–92 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-76-92
© Koval P.K., Polbin A.V., 2023
E.I. Brichka, Yu.S. Evlakhova
Three Levels of Digital Inequality of the Population in the Financial Sphere, p. 93-109
The article examines the problems of digital inequality in the financial sphere at three levels. The purpose of the study is to characterize and assess (quantitatively or qualitatively) the digital inequality of the Russian population in the financial sphere (at each of the three levels). The achievement of the research goal is ensured by using the index method, methods of graphical analysis, as well as comparative analysis of empirical data. The result of the work is the developed index of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere, which allows to give an aggregate assessment. The calculated values of the index confirm the conclusions about the steady decline in the Russian economy of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere. As for the second-level digital inequality, the following results were obtained: In 2021, a significant part of the Russian population possessed such basic skills as sending files via e-mail and messengers, working with a text editor and copying or moving files; the share of the population possessing advanced skills increased, while the availability of basic and standard digital skills remained virtually unchanged; the level of digital literacy does not affect the population’s activity in ordering financial services online. A list of digital financial skills has been formulated, which can be assessed in further analysis of the second-level digital inequality. The theoretical description of the third-level digital inequality led us to conclude that to better understand this level, an expanded analysis is required, as well as progress in overcoming the digital gaps of the first and second levels.
Keywords: digital inequality, digital technologies, digital skills, digital competencies, digital inequality index, financial market
JEL: G20, O33
Funding: the article is based on the results of the research performed under the Russian Science Foundation grant № 23-28-00590, https://rscf.ru/project/23-28-00590/
For citation: Brichka E.I., Evlakhova Yu.S. (2023). Three Levels of Digital Inequality of the Population in the Financial Sphere. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 93–109 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-93-109
© Brichka E.I., Evlakhova Yu.S., 2023
L.N. Ivanova, E.N. Badmaeva
Cross-border Approach to Economic Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Sphere
of Turnover of Precious Metals and Stones, p. 110-122
In the conditions of expanding interaction between friendly countries, the cross-border approach to economic cooperation in strategically important areas is becoming increasingly important. The methodological basis of this study was the dialectical method of cognition, which allows analyzing and synthesizing economic phenomena, dissecting them into separate elements. The methods of logical, economic and situational analysis were also used. The authors give a bibliographic review of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan using a cross-border approach to the analysis of the precious metals and stones market; show the role of the Republic of Kazakhstan at historical stages in the formation of integration processes in the Eurasian space; characterize the structure of the market of precious metals and stones and products made of them. The market of precious metals, gemstones and products made of them is a promising direction of Kazakhstan's economic development. The Republic of Kazakhstan is successfully improving the state regulation of the precious metals and gemstones industry, taking into account global trends and best practices in this area. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia will contribute to their further economic development.
Keywords: Russia, Kazakhstan, cross-border approach, precious metals, gemstones
JEL: D51, G28, G32, O29, L15
Funding: the article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Ivanova L.N., Вadmaeva E.N. (2023). Cross-border Approach to Economic Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Sphere of Turnover of Precious Metals and Stones. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 110–122 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-110-122
© Ivanova L.N., Вadmaeva E.N., 2023
V.V. Olkhovik, R.S. Afanasev, E. Juchnevicius, T.N. Malofeeva
Fiscal Mechanism for Stimulating Domestic Production in Some BRICS and European Countries, p. 123-135
The issue of stimulating domestic production is multifaceted and has a long history of study. At present, it is particularly relevant due to the introduction of restrictive measures, including the termination of supplies of a number of foreign goods to the Russian Federation. As one of the possible measures to increase the production of goods by Russian companies and entrepreneurs, the authors consider a new incentive mechanism of redistribution of value added tax (VAT) received by the federal budget, which implies the direction of the amounts of social grants taking into account the economic activity of the region associated with the production of value added on its territory. The purpose of the article is to justify a new methodology that includes a financial mechanism for redistributing the amounts of VAT in the form of grants to producers, aimed at creating effective budgetary incentives for regions to organize their own production of goods. For this purpose, the experience of VAT distribution in two BRICS countries — Brazil and China — is considered. In addition, the article summarizes effective measures of Germany, France, Greece, Austria and Norway to optimize calculation and payment of VAT, which resulted in economic growth. Discussion. One notable approach proposed by the authors to create a new incentive mechanism for redistribution of VAT revenues to the federal budget. This mechanism involves the allocation of social grants depending on the economic activity of the regions, particularly related to the production of valueadded goods on their territory. This approach represents a departure from traditional fiscal policies aimed at aligning incentives with local production. Results. This research represents a significant contribution to the ongoing debate on stimulating domestic production. By advocating a new mechanism of VAT redistribution and drawing on international experiences, the study seeks to address the challenges posed by restrictive measures and promote economic growth in the Russian Federation.
Keywords: commodity production, stimulating, value added tax, social grants, economic activity, redistribution, budgetary incentives, BRICS countries, VAT distribution, economic growth
JEL: H30, H87
For citation: Olkhovik V.V., Afanasev R.S., Juchnevicius E., Malofeeva T.N. (2023). Fiscal Mechanism for Stimulating Domestic Production in Some BRICS and European Countries. Financial Journal, 15 (6), 123–135. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-123-135
© Olkhovik V.V., Afanasev R.S., Juchnevicius E., Malofeeva T.N., 2023