Eng 
Рус Financial Journal Vol.16 No.3 2024
CONTENTS
M.V. Petrov
The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows, p. 8-22
Abstract
The study examines the impact of geopolitical tensions, which have increased sharply in recent times, on international capital flows. It shows that geopolitical tensions affect cross-border investment flows through three main channels: increased geopolitical risks that encourage international investors to reduce investments in countries with different foreign policies; tighter controls on incoming FDI in many countries to ensure national security; and financial sanctions imposed by Western countries to put pressure on other states. Based on the analysis of investment relations between the United States and China, the contradictions between which are the main source of geopolitical tension in the world, the author confirms the conclusion that the influence of geopolitical factors on capital flows between the countries has increased since the second half of the 2010s. However, the study substantiates that the emerging fragmentation of cross-border capital flows can have not only negative, but also positive consequences for the global economy and finance. The compression of capital flows between the countries of the global North and South may push the latter to establish closer integration ties in the financial sector, create financial infrastructure independent of the West, focused on the needs of developing countries, and accelerate the internationalization of their currencies. As a result, these processes could weaken the dominance of Western countries in the global financial system and facilitate its transition to a more equitable multipolar configuration.
Keywords: international capital flows, geopolitical tensions, geopolitical risks, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments
JEL: F02, F21, F51
For citation: Petrov M.V. (2024). The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 8–22 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-8-22.
© Petrov M.V., 2024
N.E. Barbashova, A.N. Komarnitskaya
Problems and Prospects of Inter-budget Relations in Russia’s Urban Agglomerations, p. 23-39
Abstract
The development of urban agglomerations is an urgent direction of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of territorial development. The purpose of this article is to identify current problems in the sphere of budgetary interaction within urban agglomerations and to develop approaches to building an optimal system of inter-budget relations in different agglomeration models. Among them we can distinguish the traditional model (in which the core is an urban district, the satellite zone — municipalities located in the same subject of the Russian Federation), the interregional model (municipalities forming an agglomeration are located in several subjects of the Russian Federation) and the model of agglomeration formed around a city of federal significance. The result of the study is a set of proposals for building interrelated measures in the field of inter-budget relations aimed at creating conditions to stimulate agglomeration processes. The proposals include recommendations for certain amendments and additions to the current budgetary legislation in order to adapt the instruments of inter-budget regulation to the needs of territorial development.
Keywords: agglomerations, agglomeration development, inter-budget relations, horizontal transfers, horizontal budget loans
JEL: H70, H77
Funding: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program.
For citation: Barbashova N.E., Komarnitskaya A.N. (2024). Problems and Prospects of Inter-budget Relations in Russia’s Urban Agglomerations. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 23–39 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-23-39.
© Barbashova N.E., Komarnitskaya A.N., 2024
L.V. Polezharova, M.R. Pinskaya, E.Yu. Vinogradova
Improving Russia’s Tax Policy in the Sphere of International Taxation, p. 40-50
Abstract
Given the need for the Russian Federation to adapt to sanctions and increase its resilience to new challenges, there is an urgent need to improve tax policy in the sphere of international taxation. This article proposes several conceptual approaches to protecting Russia's tax interests and ensuring its sovereign rights in the international tax sphere. In this regard, the authors conduct an empirical assessment of the consequences for Russia of foreign initiatives to distribute global profits between jurisdictions in the context of the country’s limited participation in traditional information exchange. The assessment addressed the areas of international exchange of tax information and procedures for resolving international tax disputes. The authors suggest measures to counter the erosion of the national tax base in the context of limited cooperation and collaboration in tax administration. Once we have clarified the current multilateral and bilateral international tax treaties with states that have not imposed sanctions on Russia, we will be able to assess the country's attractiveness to investors from these countries and understand the practical implications of the findings.
Keywords: international taxation, deoffshorization, international tax cooperation, international tax treaty, exchange of information, Pillar 1, Pillar 2
JEL: F23, H25, H26
Funding: The article is based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment to the Financial University for 2024.
For citation: Polezharova L.V., Pinskaya M.R., Vinogradova E.Yu. (2024). Improving Russia’s Tax Policy in the Sphere of International Taxation. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 40–50 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-40-50.
© Polezharova L.V., Pinskaya M.R., Vinogradova E.Yu., 2024
G.A. Petrosyan, N.N. Karapetyan, A.A. Margaryan, A.N. Sokolov, I.I. Yakovleva, A.I. Votinov
Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Aggregate Taxes of the Republic of Armenia, p. 51-67
Abstract
This paper is devoted to the application of the Bayesian approach to the forecasting of aggregate taxes on the example of the Republic of Armenia. Typically, this approach is used in large-scale BVARs to forecast macroeconomic variables. The objective of this study is to estimate the efficiency of the Bayesian approach to constricting relatively low-scale fiscal VARs. Another objective is to build a specific BVAR model for forecasting tax revenues in the context of actual forecasting rounds. The study is based on seasonally adjusted quarterly aggregate tax data and the corresponding proxy bases. A hierarchical approach to the selection of BVAR’s priors is implemented. It assumes the random nature of variances in the prior values of the coefficients. The hierarchical approach is also characterized by a high level of variability of hyperparameters. To determine the optimal structure of the BVAR model in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, a special algorithm was developed. This algorithm involves a specific procedure for the selection of priors and model parameters, which allows to significantly minimize the prediction error. The Geweke and Gelman-Rubin tests were used/considered to check the convergence of the parameters, and the acceptance rate of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was taken into account. It Additional priors, such as the sum-of-coefficients prior and the dummy-initialobservation prior (single-unit-root), are shown to improve the quality of out-of-sample forecasts. These priors allow for the possibility of the existence of a single root and cointegration between variables. The main finding of this study is that the proposed algorithm for selecting parameters in BVAR significantly improves out-of-sample performance compared to traditional frequency VAR.
Keywords: aggregate tax forecasting, vector autoregressive model (vector autoregression), Bayesian hierarchical approach
JEL: C11, C32, H68
For citation: Petrosyan G.A. et al. (2024). Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Aggregate Taxes of the Republic of Armenia. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 51–67 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-51-67.
© Petrosyan G.A. et al., 2024
R.V. Balakin, Yu.A. Steshenko
Review of Approaches to Assessing the Impact of New Challenges on the Economy and Certain Aspects of Taxation, p. 68-85
Abstract
The article presents a review of publications devoted to the approaches to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy in general and on certain aspects of taxation in particular. It considers both studies that assess this impact by analyzing macroeconomic indicators (less often — budget indicators) and building econometric models (mainly SVAR and VAR models are used in this case), and studies in which various authors propose their own indicators to assess this impact (most often they are either sustainability indicators or stress indicators). Special attention is paid to publications the subject of which is the impact of new challenges on the tax system. A separate block includes publications in which the above issues are considered in relation to the Russian tax system. These are not only scientific articles on the topic, but also documents of international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, OECD, World Bank, etc. In addition, the article provides an overview of publications of foreign scientific institutes and research centers. Sanctions imposed on the economy of the Russian Federation are a particular case of an external shock. Thus, a review of publications assessing the impact of new challenges (by the example of sanctions) on the tax system of the Russian Federation is presented. The authors conclude that to assess the impact of new challenges on the tax system it is more advisable to use indicators based on statistical tax reporting.
Keywords: tax system, external shocks, new challenges, sanctions, tax security
JEL: H12, E62
Funding: The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23‑78‑10160, https://rscf.ru/project/23-78-10160/.
For citation: Balakin R.V., Steshenko Yu.A. (2024). Review of Approaches to Assessing the Impact of New Challenges on the Economy and Certain Aspects of Taxation. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 68–85 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-68-85.
© Balakin R.V., Steshenko Yu.A., 2024
A.F. Kireyeva, K.V. Rudy
Paradoxes of the Anti-crisis Role of Fiscal Federalism: Analytical Review of Studies, p. 86-97
Abstract
The analytical review of studies of the anti-crisis role of fiscal federalism during economic, ecological, epidemic challenges and territorial conflicts in 1950–2024 reveals four paradoxes. The first of them indicates the scientific validity of the positive anti-crisis effect of fiscal decentralization. But when crises arise in practice, decentralization turns out to be unclaimed, and preference is given to centralization. The second paradox is related to the nonlinear positive effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth, natural resources consumption, and carbon emissions. For example, the nonlinear positive effect of decentralization is achieved when the institutional context is improved. The third paradox is the relatively weak methodological elaboration of fiscal federalism during pandemic challenges, although it had the greatest practical relevance compared to more in-depth econometric studies of economic and environmental challenges. The fourth paradox is that fiscal federalism can both resolve the territorial conflict and create the preconditions for its resumption in the future. The peacemaking conditions of fiscal federalism are transparency and stability of inter-budget transfers, as well as insured access of the conflict region to its natural resources.
Keywords: fiscal federalism, public finance, economic crises, sustainable development, pandemic, conflicts
JEL: H12, H71, H77, R11, R58
Funding: The article was prepared as the result of the research financed by budgetary funds upon the state request from Financial University.
For citation: Kireyeva A.F., Rudy K.V. (2024). Paradoxes of the Anti-crisis Role of Fiscal Federalism: Analytical Review of Studies. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 86–97. https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-86-97.
© Kireyeva A.F., Rudy K.V., 2024
S.I. Chuzhmarova, A.I. Chuzhmarov
Tax Incentives for Transition to Rational Consumption and Production Patterns, p. 98-113
Abstract
The presented work touches upon the problem of economic transition to more environmentally friendly types of production and more careful use of resources, which is topical for the world community. The problem of transition from environmentally costly production models to more sustainable ones is reflected in the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 12, titled “responsible consumption and production”. Achievement of this global goal is impossible without state financial support and investment incentives. One of the main financial instruments of stimulation are taxes, which at the national level allow to directly and indirectly influence producers of environmentally friendly products and their transition to new green technologies, as well as consumers. The problem of increasing the impact of taxes pushes for the transformation of taxation and the formation of new incentives. The arsenal of developed and developing countries has a wide range of fiscal instruments and accumulated experience of tax impact on production and consumption, the study of which can be useful in the formation of tax policy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the experience of individual countries and systematize the tools of tax incentives for the transition to more environmentally friendly types of production and rational consumption of resources and justification of promising directions of tax impact. Based on the study of international experience, the authors determine the approaches of countries to the construction of tax incentives for the rational development and use of natural resources, reduction of environmental pollution. They also substantiate the need for tax support for building up scientific and technological potential, sustainable tourism and sustainable public procurement. The next promising direction of research may be the formation of tax instruments to eliminate market imbalances reflected in wasteful consumption of resources, transformation of indirect taxation of consumption, tax support for social projects, tax regulation of energy efficiency.
Keywords: tax, sustainable development, production, consumption, incentives, SDG 12
JEL: H22, H61
Funding: The publication was prepared in accordance with the Research Plan of the Pitirim Sorokin Syktyvkar State University and the Research Plan of the Institute of Economics of the Urals Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
For citation: Chuzhmarova S.I., Chuzhmarov A.I. (2024). Tax Incentives for Transition to Rational Consumption and Production Patterns. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 98–113 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-98-113.
© Chuzhmarova S.I., Chuzhmarov A.I., 2024
B.I. Alekhin
Russians’ Personal Savings in the Regional Context, p. 114-132
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship between the personal savings ratio and several factors that, in the author’s opinion, determine this ratio. To achieve this purpose, a panel for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2022 was assembled on the basis of official statistics data. In the descriptive part of the paper, we examined theories of personal savings, saving behavior of the population, the impact of personal savings on economic growth and the reasons why regional authorities should improve the climate for personal savings and growth of the working-age population in their regions. We used the PMG method to estimate our empirical ARDL model and found that the personal savings ratio is mainly determined by the age composition of the regional population and regional inflation, while money income and household final consumption are robust control variables. There is a long-run equilibrium relationship between these variables.
Keywords: personal savings, economic growth, cointegration, regions, Russia
JEL: D14, E21, C23
For citation: Alekhin B.I. (2024). Russians’ Personal Savings in the Regional Context. Financial Journal, 16 (3), 114–132 (In Russ.).
https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-114-132.
© Alekhin B.I., 2024
