Eng 
Рус Financial Journal Vol.16 No.1 2024
CONTENTS
E.V. Martyanova, A.V. Polbin
Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia, p. 8-30
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of alternative options of progressive taxation on Russia’s macroeconomic performance. For quantitative assessments, a neoclassical general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households subject to idiosyncratic income shocks was used. Three groups of scenarios were analyzed, setting a threshold progressive tax scale with thresholds of 30, 50, and 70 thousand rubles, under which state income tax revenues (1) grow, (2) remain unchanged, and (3) decline. The maximum personal income tax rate in the analyzed scenarios was 25%. Steady states and transitions were calculated for the scenarios. According to the quantitative estimates, the first reform leads to a loss of 0.3% to 1.3% of GDP in the long run, depending on the assumed rates and threshold. Despite the increase in lump-sum transfers, aggregate household consumption decreases by 0.5–1.7% in all cases. The second reform leads to a loss of 0.2% to 0.6% of GDP in the long run. The third reform leads to insignificant fluctuations of GDP within 0.1%: GDP increases at the threshold of 30 thousand rubles and decreases at other thresholds. The scale of inequality reduction, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases with an increase in the top tax rate. However, as the threshold increases, the depth of the Gini index reduction first increases and then decreases. In the short run, there is upward pressure on wages and prices. This is because a decrease in labor supply with unchanged capital in the short run leads to an increase in wage rates (a shift along the labor demand curve), and an increase in wage rates means an increase in marginal costs for firms, leading to higher prices.
Keywords: general equilibrium, heterogeneous agents, fiscal policy, progressive taxation
JEL: E13, E21, E62, H24, H31
For citation: Martyanova E.V., Polbin A.V. (2024). Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 8–30 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-8-30.
© Martyanova E.V., Polbin A.V., 2024
S.V. Arzhenovskiy
Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data, p. 31-44
Abstract
The article is devoted to modeling and forecasting of the gross domestic product of Russia based on the data of enterprise survey conducted by the Bank of Russia. The purpose was to study the possibility of improving the efficiency and accuracy of GDP forecasting based on the use of these data. The authors used business climate indicators as well as balances of responses to questions about dynamics of output, demand, and prices. The methodology included regression analysis, as well as a combination of factor and regression analysis, both on aggregate data on all economic sectors and on data on individual economic branches. The forecasting results for two control samples containing actual observations for the eight quarters of 2017–2018 and the five quarters of 2022–2023 suggested that the use of monitoring data improved forecasting accuracy compared to the ARIMA benchmark model. The lowest estimation errors were obtained for approaches combining factor and regression analysis on aggregate data for all economic sectors or the economy as a whole.
Keywords: enterprise monitoring, business climate indicator, factor analysis, regression analysis
JEL: C22, C53, C81, E27
Note: the views expressed herein are solely those of the author. The content and results of this research should not be considered or referred to in any publications as the Bank of Russia’s official position, official policy, or decisions. Any errors in this document are the responsibility of the author.
For citation: Arzhenovskiy S.V. (2024). Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 31–44 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-31-44.
© Arzhenovskiy S.V., 2024
E.E. Grishina
Financial Situation of Large Families and Factors of Their Income Growth, p. 45-60
Abstract
The article analyzes changes in the financial situation of large families in the period from 2018 to 2022 using the data of the Rosstat’s Comprehensive Observation of Living Conditions of the Population for 2018 and 2022. The prevalence of various deprivations among large households and households with children in general is estimated. Changes in household income relative to the poverty line and deprivation level between 2018 and 2022 are calculated. It is shown that despite the improvement in financial status between 2018 and 2022, large families continue to experience significant risks of poverty and deprivation. To assess the factors affecting the incomes of large households, Rosstat data of the Sample Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs (VNDN-2022) were used. Regression analysis shows that employment of adult members of a large family, improvement of their education and qualification level will contribute to the growth of average per capita family income relative to the poverty line. The article outlines proposals for increasing the labor potential of large families, improving their financial situation and reducing poverty.
Keywords: large families, households with three or more children, financial situation, income, support measures
JEL: I31, I38, H75
Funding: the research was funded by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation No. 23-18-00537, https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-18-00537/, at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
For citation: Grishina E.E. (2024). Financial Situation of Large Families and Factors of Their Income Growth. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 45–60 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-45-60.
© Grishina E.E., 2024
S.S. Sudakov, A.A. Zinchenko
Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan, p. 61-77
Abstract
This paper proposes a universal methodology for assessing export potential of different countries. It takes into account both external and internal supply and demand factors. The methodology is based on the assessment of various trade indices, such as the Balassa index, trade complementarity index and export specialization index. In addition to analyzing the export capabilities of countries, the methodology also focuses on analyzing the countries’ presence in foreign markets (through the geographical structure of imports). The presented methodology is complemented by the estimation of output multipliers (based on Input — Output tables). The calculation of output multipliers takes into account additional induced effects resulting from the growth of household and government incomes, which are partly spent on additional consumption. Complementary analysis of trade indices and output multipliers (including induced effects) allows to identify sectors and products that will most stimulate economic growth by increasing exports. The proposed methodology has been tested on data for the Republic of Uzbekistan in terms of intensive margin of trade. The results of the analysis show that the methodology can be used as a basis for preparing export development programs for individual countries. The methodology could be improved by a deeper analysis of foreign trade barriers, domestic supply factors and extensive trade margins. However, up-to-date information on these improvement factors is not always publicly available.
Keywords: trade indices, input-output multipliers, Input-Output tables, export potential
JEL: C67, D57, F13, F63
For citation: Sudakov S.S., Zinchenko A.A. (2024). Export Potential Assessment Methodology: The Case of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 61–77 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-61-77.
© Sudakov S.S., Zinchenko A.A., 2024
M.V. Sigova, I.K. Klyuchnikov, O.I. Klyuchnikov
Sustainability and Security of Green Finance from the Multi-agent Games Perspective, p. 78-95
Abstract
Green finance increases the innovation potential of green transformation, helps to address climate change, the environmental crisis and energy security. It is important for green finance to achieve sustainable and balanced development, which will increase the security of both finance itself and many processes in the real economy that depend on it. The purpose of this study was to develop approaches to the ontological design of green finance and multi-agent modeling of the behavior of green finance actors, considering their sustainable and safe interaction. To achieve this goal it was necessary to clarify the conceptual apparatus of green finance and related areas; to characterize the "work" of the multi-agent model in the analysis of the behavior of the main green finance actors and to trace the prospects for their impact on the stability and security of the financial market; and finally, based on ontology construction and agent-based approach to nonlinear interactions in the green financial process, to determine the mechanism of building chains of the main market participants. The methodological basis of the study consists of general scientific research methods (analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, logic), as well as evolutionary dynamics and agent-based approach to the analysis of financial markets. A comparative analysis of the works of various authors and the interpretation of theoretical provisions in related areas of knowledge about finance, as well as the analysis of their sustainable and safe development were carried out. As a result of the study, the authors identified the main approaches to the design of financial ontology and multi-agent modeling of financial interactions in the direction of determining their sustainable and safe development. The proposed model establishes that the criterion of the effectiveness of the applied strategy is the satisfaction with the state of financial impact on the economy, environment, and social sphere. Maintaining this state, along with saving the amount of resources used, is done through optimization. The chosen approach corresponds to the concept of sustainable development and safe functioning of the systems under consideration.
Keywords: green finance, ontology, multi-agent modeling, sustainability, security
JEL: F01, B41, F30, F37, Q50, Q56
For citation: Sigova M.V., Klyuchnikov I.K., Klyuchnikov O.I. (2024). Sustainability and Security of Green Finance from the Multi-agent Games Perspective. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 78–95 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-78-95.
© Sigova M.V., Klyuchnikov I.K., Klyuchnikov O.I., 2024
O.V. Khmyz
Sustainable Investments and Divestments by Global Institutional Investors, p. 96-108
Abstract
The article analyzes the investment activity of sustainable institutional investors after the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The relevance of the study is conditioned, firstly, by the leading positions of institutional investors in the global financial market and in the system of international finance; secondly, by the special role of mutual funds and ETFs in the global market of sustainable finance; thirdly, by the noticeable dynamics of investments by these market participants in recent years, which increasingly turns into divestments. The purpose of the study is to identify current trends in sustainable investment by global institutional investors and formulate their further actions in the short term. To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: to clarify, taking into account the latest statistical data, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other force majeure factors on the size and dynamics of the flow of funds of sustainable institutional investors in the leading countries of the world, and to assess the impact on investment prospects of current political and financial factors. In the course of the study, a significant amount of scientific research was analyzed, which served as a basis for identifying the institutional investors’ approaches to sustainable finance. It is concluded that the prospects for global sustainable investing are favorable due to the continued stimulation of environmental change at the supranational level, both in developed and leading developing countries. The financial success of sustainable investment will also contribute to this.
Keywords: institutional investors, sustainable finance, ESG, green bonds, sustainable bonds, investment funds
JEL: G23, G20, F21, N20
For citation: Khmyz O.V. (2024). Sustainable Investments and Divestments by Global Institutional Investors. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 96–108 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-96-108.
© Khmyz O.V., 2024
I.P. Dovbiy, N.S. Dovbiy
Sustainable Finance in Addressing the Challenges of Energy Transition and Climate Change Mitigation, p. 109-124
Abstract
This study reveals the special role of finance related to the climate and energy transition, the effectiveness of which is evaluated by ESG criteria. The authors define the concept of "sustainable finance" as economic relations within the framework of purposeful formation of capital flows in accordance with ESG principles from public, corporate and private sources and their channeling to achieve the goals of sustainable development, energy transition and adaptation to climate change. It is established that the sustainable development policy implies a comprehensive achievement of goals and solving problems related to the energy transition and overcoming the consequences of climate change, without considering one without the other. The article reveals a connection between the strengthening of climate-related risk management and acceleration of energy consumption, which led to an increase in investor demand for reliable, comprehensive and comparable information. It also reveals significant contradictions between the global players of the global economy regarding the timing and forms of ensuring technological sovereignty and the special role of sustainable finance in achieving it, as well as the importance for Russia to follow global trends in the climate and energy transition. As a special segment of sustainable finance, the field of venture climate finance is developing quite rapidly, but this process is hampered by the lack of adequate information among venture investors about ESG in hightech startup companies and the specter of "black swans" in the financial markets.
Keywords: energy transition, sustainable finance, climate agenda, decarbonization, technological sovereignty, ESG, venture financing
JEL: Q01, Q42, Q56
For citation: Dovbiy I.P., Dovbiy N.S. (2024). Sustainable Finance in Addressing the Challenges of Energy Transition and Climate Change Mitigation. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 109–124 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-109-124.
© Dovbiy I.P., Dovbiy N.S., 2024
L.N. Ivanova, O.V. Umgaeva
Digital Marking of Jewelry: Leveling the Risks of Implementation, p. 125-135
Abstract
The possibility of leveling the risks of introducing digital labeling of jewelry is of significant interest at the current stage of functioning of the state integrated information system in the field of turnover of precious metals, gemstones and articles made of them (GIIS DMDK). In accordance with the current legislation, digital transformation is actually already registered at all enterprises in this field, starting from mining and refining and ending with the sale of jewelry. The accumulated experience and the scheme of implementing digital accounting should be considered when improving the system of turnover of precious stones and metals within the EAEU countries that have signed a cooperation agreement, therefore it is logical to analyze the problems in this area. From the authors’ point of view, the planned tasks of the next stages of implementation of the GIIS DMDK system require clarification, in particular, labeling and building new business models on its basis. The article offers an analysis and justification of various options for solving these problems of expediency of practical application, reducing the risks of rejection of labeling by participants in the precious metals and gemstones turnover and achieving the expected effect.
Keywords: digital marking, GIIS DMDK, digital code, jewelry, branding, testing, turnover of precious stones and metals
JEL: D51, G28, G32, O29, L15
Funding: the article was prepared as part of the research work under the state assignment of the Financial Research Institute.
For citation: Ivanova L.N., Umgaeva O.V. (2024). Digital Marking of Jewelry: Leveling the Risks of Implementation. Financial Journal, 16 (1), 125–135 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-125-135.
© Ivanova L.N., Umgaeva O.V., 2024
