Financial Journal Vol.15 No.4 2023
Problems and Methods of Improving the Legal Regulation of Public Investment in Russia, p. 8-26
The article describes the main conclusions of the research work aimed at identifying key problems of and ways to improve the legal regulation of public investment in Russia. This work was based on the analysis of legislation and practice of its application. The analysis leads to the conclusion that there are significant shortcomings in the current legislation on planning and implementation of public investment, which hinder their efficiency. Among such shortcomings, the author highlights contradictions on the issue of bodies authorized to make key investment decisions; duplication of the investment component of state programs and national (federal) projects; approval of budget allocations for projects that are not ready for implementation; unclear grounds for raising the price of construction contracts, as well as for centralizing the functions of planning and implementation of sectoral investments, reduction of requirements for justification of investment projects. To mitigate these shortcomings, the author suggests to ensure systematic planning of large investments as part of national and federal projects, excluding these costs from the state programs; as a general rule, to abandon the practice of approving decisions on the implementation of budget investments by individual acts of the government and financing projects without the necessary documentation; to organize a comparative assessment of the efficiency of centralized and sectoral customers in investment management according to legally defined criteria; to return to the use of some previously applied criteria for the efficiency of investment projects.
Keywords: public investments, budget investments, federal targeted investment program (FTIP), planning of public investments, implementation of public investments
JEL: H11, H50, H54, H60, H68, O20
For citation: Zolotareva A.B. (2023). Problems and Methods of Improving the Legal Regulation of Public Investment in Russia. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 8–26 (In Russ.).
© Zolotareva A.B., 2023
O.K. Yastrebova, O.I. Karasev
Financing Instruments and Outcomes for R&D Public Funding, p. 27-42
The key actual task of improving the tools of scientific and technological policy is the focus of R&D on obtaining socially significant results, including the creation of in-demand innovative products and technologies. Its solution requires appropriate improvement of the system of financial support for science. The authors of the article consider the existence of a clearly structured relationship between the national goals set for the scientific field as a whole and specific tools for their achievement as a necessary condition for effective management of this sphere. The paper analyzes the key instruments of R&D financing from the point of view of approaches to ensuring their effectiveness. The necessity of linking the volume of funding with the achieved results is shown, and specific proposals to solving this problem are made, including those based on the assessment of the technology readiness level (TRL).
Keywords: S&T policy, R&D financing instruments, performance indicators, technology readiness level, state program
JEL: O31, O32, O38
For citation: Yastrebova O.K., Karasev O.I. (2023). Financing Instruments and Outcomes for R&D Public Funding. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 27–42 (In Russ.).
© Yastrebova O.K., Karasev O.I., 2023
Monetary Poverty and Education in Russia, p. 43-62
Russian economic literature on poverty abounds with empirically unsupported assertions about the positive relationship between education and living standards. The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence of this relationship using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. We applied a dynamic OLS estimator to estimate a panel cointegrating equation and found strong negative and statistically significant dependence of indicators of absolute and relative monetary poverty on the highest level of education of the regional working-age population. We also performed the Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise causality test, which shows that higher education does not homogeneously cause more absolute monetary poverty, but more absolute monetary poverty does homogeneously cause better education as people try to avoid poverty by raising their educational level. The results of these econometric procedures suggest that the purpose of the study has been achieved.
Keywords: monetary poverty, education, cointegration, region, Russia
JEL: I24, C23
For citation: Alekhin B.I. (2023). Monetary Poverty and Education in Russia. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 43–62 (In Russ.).
© Alekhin B.I., 2023
A.I. Denisova, D.A. Sozaeva, K.V. Gonchar, G.A. Aleksandrov
Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Economic Efficiency of Public E-procurement of Medicines, p. 63-81
The study raises the issue of evaluating the effectiveness of public procurement, especially procurement of medicines. This topic is relevant, since a significant part of state funding is directed specifically to the healthcare system. In addition, the quality of organization of procurement activities affects the work of hospitals and polyclinics. In this regard, the improvement of the methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of public procurement, particularly procurement of medicines, is critically important. The paper presents the results of statistical analysis showing the need to develop a more comprehensive methodology that takes into account the volume of failed purchases in the context of efficiency assessment. The issue of "repeated" purchases was studied separately, since information about them would allow drawing conclusions about the existing patterns in tenders and the reasons for recognizing a purchase as failed. The methodological novelty is associated with the description of the approach to the formation of a sample for research and the algorithm for identifying "repeated" procurement procedures. All calculations are based on real data on procurement under the Federal Law No. 44-FZ for 2021–2022. The data was aggregated from the Unified Information System for Procurement. A statistical analysis of the scale of failed and repeated purchases in the context of regions, medicines and pharmacotherapeutic groups has been conducted. Based on the analysis, approximate estimates of hidden costs of the state budget related to re-organizing and re-conducting of trade procedures are given. The results of the work can be used for further scientific research in the field of public procurement efficiency, as well as to improve public policy in the field of procurement and provision of medicines.
Keywords: state and municipal procurement, effectiveness of public procurement, procurement of medicines, repeated purchases, failed purchases, big data
JEL: C55, C81, C40, H57, I18
Acknowledgments: The study was carried out at the State University of Management in cooperation with Roseltorg.Lab (JSC "Unified Electronic Trading Platform"). The authors are grateful to JSC "United Electronic Trading Platform" for the supportof the company's employees research activities.
For citation: Denisova A.I., Sozaeva D.A., Gonchar K.V., Aleksandrov G.A. (2023). Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Economic Efficiency of Public
E-procurement of Medicines. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 63–81 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-63-81.
© Denisova A.I., Sozaeva D.A., Gonchar K.V., Aleksandrov G.A., 2023
Green Budgeting Tools and Practice, p. 82-97
Russia is following the course of implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals and shaping its climate strategy. In March 2023, Russia approved the National Action Plan for the second phase of adaptation to climate change for the period until 2025. The public budget is the main tool for achieving the political goals of the government, therefore, in order to implement the public policy in the field of environmental protection and counteraction to climate change, green budgeting is being introduced. The purpose of this article is to actualize the ideas of green budgeting, systematize such budgeting tools within the framework of the general concept of green budgeting, taking into account foreign experience of their use. The author uses general scientific methods, in particular methods of analysis and synthesis of relevant scientific literature, legal information and publications of international organizations. The following conclusions are made: The public budget system is able to minimize those economic activities that are adverse for the environment by creating the possibility of tracking, analysis, evaluation and adjustment of budget expenditures using the tools of green budgeting. The latter does not require restructuring of the public finance management system; the prerequisite for its practical use is the presence of environmental care among the state national goals.
Keywords: green budget, green budgeting, green public finance management, climate budgeting, green budget tagging, environmental impact assessment, audit of green expenditures
JEL: F53, F64, H61, H72, Q01, Q51
For citation: Vinogradova T.I. (2023). Green Budgeting Tools and Practice. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 82–97 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-82-97.
© Vinogradova T.I., 2023
Zh.A. Mingaleva, I.A. Nikitina, I.A. Kruglova
On the Feasibility of Using the Environmental Performance Index to Assess
the Level of Socio-ecological Development of Russian Regions, p. 98-111
Introduction: Investment decisions by many private and institutional investors are made taking into account the information (current estimates, forecasts, trends) contained in various country ratings regularly published by leading international financial and regulatory organizations (IMF, IBRD, UN), which allows investors to assess the level of risk and return on investment in various projects in these countries. The article evaluates the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), the most common in international studies, from the point of view of its use as a comprehensive tool for comparative analysis and an indicator for assessing the success of achieving the goals of sustainable social and environmental development of Russian regions. Purpose: Analysis of the feasibility of using EPI and its individual elements as part of an integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of social and environmental development of Russia and its regions. Results: The authors reviewed the transformation of the methodology for calculating EPI over the entire period of its compilation; analyzed the dynamics of indicators, directions and blocks that make up the Index; assessed their adequacy to the geographical and sectoral features of social and environmental development. Conclusions: An extremely high level of politicization of the Index and inconsistency of its calculation methodology with the real conditions of Russia’s economic development were revealed. The inexpediency of its use in the present conditions to assess the social and environmental development of Russian regions, to build a rating of their sustainable development, to develop criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental programs and projects, including in the field of green and environmental investments, was proved.
Keywords: socio-ecological development, comparative analysis, Environmental Performance Index, assessment indicators
JEL: Q54, Q56, Q58, Q52
Acknowledgments: the article was prepared as part of the implementation of the Strategic Academic Leadership Program “Priority 2030” by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).
For citation: Mingaleva Zh.A., Nikitina I.A., Kruglova I.A. (2023). On the Feasibility of Using the Environmental Performance Index to Assess the Level of Socio-ecological Development of Russian Regions. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 98–111 (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-98-111.
© Mingaleva Zh.A., Nikitina I.A., Kruglova I.A., 2023
I.V. Kiviko, N.I. Malis
The Tax Policy of the Republic of Crimea: Reducing Subsidization of the Region, p. 112-122
Currently, the Republic of Crimea is a subsidized region, and for objective reasons the level of subsidization will not be significantly reduced in the near future, as a result of which the implementation of the indicators reflected in the Law of the Republic of Crimea "On the Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030" does not seem realistic. At the same time, the tax policy of the republic is developing measures to increase its own budget revenues, and they are already giving their positive results. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the revenue side of the regional budget should be based on increasing the manageability of the tax potential, which is formed taking into account the indicators of the dynamics of economic development. The unique geographical, resource and climatic conditions of the Republic of Crimea allow for a widely diversified economic development policy and, accordingly, regional tax policy. Based on the peculiarities of the territorial location and a large number of health resort and recreational complexes, it is possible to form a program of short-term measures to increase the tax base under special tax regimes, personal income tax and other taxes due to the cascade effect of business activity of individuals and SMEs. Full or partial solution of the problem of seasonality of active use of tourist infrastructure will increase the tax potential and, in turn, reduce subsidized dependence on the federal center. The management of tax potential should certainly be based on the analysis of the level of tax burden due to the fact that excessive tax burden can lead to the effect of reverse increase in tax payments.
Keywords: Republic of Crimea, budget, tax incentives, gross regional product, profit, small business, tax potential
JEL: G28, D63, D78
For citation: Kiviko I.V., Malis N.I. (2023). The Tax Policy of the Republic of Crimea: Reducing Subsidization of the Region. Financial Journal, 15 (4), 112–122 (In Russ.).
© Kiviko I.V., Malis N.I., 2023
A.Yu. Mikhaylov, V. Khare, S. E. Uhunamure, Ts. Chang, D.I. Stepanova
Bitcoin Price Short-term Forecast Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis, p. 123-137
The goal of the article is to develop an innovative forecasting approach based on the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models for predicting crypto-asset prices (IFSs, PFSs, q-ROFSs). The baseline forecast horizon is 90 days (additional horizons are 30, 60, 120 and 150 days), which allows to estimate the significance of the chosen features and the impact of time on the forecast accuracy. The paper proposes an optimal data selection approach for the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to improve the prediction of the daily closing price of Bitcoin, using online social network activity, trading parameters, technical indicators, and data on other cryptocurrencies. This paper utilizes a tree-based machine learning prediction and a fuzzy logic model for Bitcoin. The article attempts to prove that automated Bitcoin forecasting using machine learning algorithms is very effective for the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, the latter is characterized by high volatility, significant rate hikes of the most liquid cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin). Therefore, investments in cryptocurrencies, especially long-term ones, involve significant risks. This defines the paper’s significance for investors and regulators. As shown by simulation studies of data selection approaches generalizing the accuracy performance of the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to real preferences of forecasting, even under significant noise measurements, the proposed selection approach leads to fast convergence of estimates. The accuracy of the model’s results exceed 85.21 on a 90-day time horizon.
Keywords: cryptocurrency, investor behavior, Bitcoin, inflation, Twitter sentiment
JEL: D53, E31, E44, F21
For citation: Mikhaylov A.Yu. et al. (2023). Bitcoin Price Short-term Forecast Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis. Financial Journal, 15 (4), pp. 123–137.
© Mikhaylov A.Yu. et al., 2023